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Serie A

Referee: L Zufferli

Parma

U U T S T

3–1

Full-time

Lazio

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 42%

15%

69%

Points per game

0,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

62%

85%

Both score Ø 77%

85%

69%

Average goals

2,9

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,55 xG 2,60

28% Possession 72%

12 Shots 23

4 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 10

0 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 15. · Lazio 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	9	2	2	+11	+7.9	29
2	Atalanta	13	9	1	3	+18	+12.7	28
3	Inter	13	8	4	1	+17	+11.3	28
4	Fiorentina	13	8	4	1	+17	+8.1	28
5	Lazio	13	9	1	3	+14	+12.6	28
6	Juventus	13	6	7	0	+14	+9.6	25
7	Milan	13	6	4	3	+9	+10.7	22
8	Bologna	13	5	6	2	+2	+1.4	21
9	Udinese	14	5	2	7	-5	-7.0	17
10	Empoli	14	3	7	4	-4	-9.7	16
11	Torino	13	4	3	6	-3	-5.3	15
12	Cagliari	14	3	5	6	-9	-3.3	14
13	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-11	-8.5	14
14	Roma	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.5	13
15	Parma	13	2	6	5	-4	-3.5	12
16	Lecce	13	3	3	7	-15	-8.1	12
17	Verona	14	4	0	10	-16	-11.7	12
18	Como	14	2	5	7	-12	-1.7	11
19	Monza	14	1	7	6	-5	-6.5	10
20	Venezia	14	2	2	10	-14	-6.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+11	+11.0	19
2	Napoli	7	6	0	1	+7	+7.6	18
3	Atalanta	6	5	0	1	+12	+6.7	15
4	Milan	7	4	2	1	+9	+6.3	14
5	Fiorentina	6	4	2	0	+8	+7.2	14
6	Inter	7	4	2	1	+7	+5.0	14
7	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+6	+6.3	13
8	Udinese	7	4	0	3	+0	-3.8	12
9	Bologna	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.3	10
10	Roma	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.5	9
11	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-6	-0.2	9
12	Verona	7	3	0	4	-7	-4.0	9
13	Torino	6	2	2	2	+0	-3.3	8
14	Lecce	6	2	2	2	-8	-0.6	8
15	Empoli	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.6	7
16	Venezia	6	2	0	4	-2	+3.9	6
17	Como	6	1	3	2	-5	-0.2	6
18	Parma	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.7	5
19	Genoa	8	0	5	3	-6	-4.5	5
20	Monza	7	0	3	4	-4	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.3	14
2	Fiorentina	7	4	2	1	+9	+0.9	14
3	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.0	13
4	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+8	+3.2	12
5	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.3	11
6	Bologna	7	3	2	2	-2	-3.0	11
7	Lazio	6	3	0	3	+3	+1.6	9
8	Empoli	7	2	3	2	-1	-7.1	9
9	Genoa	6	3	0	3	-5	-4.0	9
10	Milan	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.5	8
11	Parma	6	1	4	1	+0	-1.8	7
12	Monza	7	1	4	2	-1	-3.4	7
13	Torino	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.0	7
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-3.2	5
15	Udinese	7	1	2	4	-5	-3.2	5
16	Como	8	1	2	5	-7	-1.5	5
17	Roma	7	0	4	3	-6	-3.0	4
18	Lecce	7	1	1	5	-7	-7.5	4
19	Verona	7	1	0	6	-9	-7.7	3
20	Venezia	8	0	2	6	-12	-10.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.