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Serie A

Referee: L Zufferli

Milan

T T S U T

2–3

Full-time

Atalanta

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 47%

54%

40%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

40%

37%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

51%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,21 xG 1,38

58% Possession 42%

20 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 5. · Atalanta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	36	27	4	5	+54	+35.7	85
2	Napoli	35	21	7	7	+19	+11.7	70
3	Juventus	36	19	11	6	+29	+33.3	68
4	Roma	36	21	4	11	+24	+12.7	67
5	Milan	35	19	10	6	+19	+16.2	67
6	Como	36	18	11	7	+32	+24.3	65
7	Atalanta	35	14	13	8	+15	+15.5	55
8	Lazio	36	13	12	11	+2	-4.1	51
9	Udinese	36	14	8	14	-1	-9.1	50
10	Bologna	35	14	7	14	+1	-1.3	49
11	Sassuolo	36	14	7	15	-2	-14.2	49
12	Torino	36	12	8	16	-18	-6.8	44
13	Parma	36	10	12	14	-18	-22.6	42
14	Genoa	36	10	11	15	-8	-2.0	41
15	Fiorentina	36	8	14	14	-11	+4.8	38
16	Cagliari	36	9	10	17	-15	-16.2	37
17	Lecce	36	8	8	20	-24	-26.2	32
18	Cremonese	36	7	10	19	-23	-21.1	31
19	Verona	36	3	11	22	-34	-10.8	20
20	Pisa	36	2	12	22	-41	-19.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	2	2	+34	+26.1	44
2	Napoli	17	12	4	1	+15	+2.8	40
3	Roma	18	12	3	3	+21	+12.2	39
4	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+21	+22.2	37
5	Como	18	9	6	3	+19	+20.0	33
6	Atalanta	18	9	6	3	+11	+16.6	33
7	Milan	17	9	5	3	+6	+10.6	32
8	Sassuolo	18	9	2	7	+0	-7.0	29
9	Lazio	18	7	6	5	+1	+0.5	27
10	Torino	18	8	3	7	-2	-2.5	27
11	Udinese	18	6	5	7	-2	-1.0	23
12	Cagliari	18	6	4	8	-2	-6.0	22
13	Genoa	18	6	4	8	-3	+2.8	22
14	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-4	+2.0	21
15	Fiorentina	18	4	8	6	+0	+10.4	20
16	Parma	18	4	6	8	-10	-11.2	18
17	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-12	-7.1	17
18	Cremonese	18	3	7	8	-8	-2.6	16
19	Pisa	18	2	4	12	-14	-4.7	10
20	Verona	18	1	5	12	-14	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	2	3	+20	+9.6	41
2	Milan	18	10	5	3	+13	+5.6	35
3	Como	18	9	5	4	+13	+4.3	32
4	Juventus	18	9	4	5	+8	+11.1	31
5	Napoli	18	9	3	6	+4	+8.9	30
6	Bologna	17	8	4	5	+5	-3.2	28
7	Roma	18	9	1	8	+3	+0.5	28
8	Udinese	18	8	3	7	+1	-8.1	27
9	Lazio	18	6	6	6	+1	-4.6	24
10	Parma	18	6	6	6	-8	-11.5	24
11	Atalanta	17	5	7	5	+4	-1.1	22
12	Sassuolo	18	5	5	8	-2	-7.2	20
13	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-5	-4.8	19
14	Fiorentina	18	4	6	8	-11	-5.6	18
15	Torino	18	4	5	9	-16	-4.2	17
16	Lecce	18	4	3	11	-12	-19.0	15
17	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-13	-10.2	15
18	Cremonese	18	4	3	11	-15	-18.5	15
19	Verona	18	2	6	10	-20	-8.5	12
20	Pisa	18	0	8	10	-27	-15.0	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.