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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Napoli
S U U T S
2–0
Full-time
Qarabag
T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Qarabag
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,8
4,0
Scored
1,2
2,2
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/10 matches
Win Ø 48%
25%
70%
Points per game
1,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
50%
70%
Both score Ø 55%
50%
60%
Average goals
3,3
3,5
Scored
1,0
2,3
Conceded
2,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,45 xG 0,49
55% Possession 45%
17 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 8
6 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
18 Free kicks against 6
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Napoli Qarabag
43′
🟨 Kevin Medina
Half-time 0–0
Noa Lang 🟨
50′
55′
🟨 Marko Janković
60′
🔁 S. Mmaee
↦ K. Medina
60′
🔁 O. Kashchuk
↦ Leandro Andrade
M. Politano 🔁
↦ S. Beukema
64′
1–0 S. McTominay ⚽
65′
1–1 M. Jankovic ⚽
own goal
72′
E. Elmas 🔁
↦ N. Lang
75′
L. Lucca 🔁
↦ R. Hojlund
75′
75′
🔁 N. Akhundzade
↦ C. Duran
75′
🔁 Dani Bolt
↦ Matheus Silva
75′
🔁 T. Bayramov
↦ E. Cafarquliyev
Amir Rrahmani 🟨
77′
Juan Jesus 🔁
↦ A. Buongiorno
90′
A. Vergara 🔁
↦ David Neres
90′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Napoli

3-4-2-1
32 V. Milinkovic-Savic G
31 S. Beukema D
13 A. Rrahmani D
4 A. Buongiorno D
22 G. Di Lorenzo M
68 S. Lobotka M
8 S. McTominay M
17 M. Olivera M
7 David Neres F
70 N. Lang F
19 R. Hojlund F
Bench (8)
14 N. Contini
25 M. Ferrante
5 Juan Jesus
20 E. Elmas
21 M. Politano
26 A. Vergara
27 L. Lucca
69 G. Ambrosino

Coach: Antonio Conte

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 M. Kochalski G
2 Matheus Silva D
13 B. Mustafazada D
81 K. Medina D
44 E. Cafarquliyev D
35 Pedro Bicalho M
8 M. Jankovic M
15 Leandro Andrade M
10 A. Zoubir
11 E. Addai M
17 C. Duran F
Bench (11)
1 S. Mahammadaliyev
97 F. Buntic
3 S. Mmaee
6 Chriso
7 N. Akhundzade
9 J. Montiel
18 Dani Bolt
21 O. Kashchuk
22 M. Qurbanly
27 T. Bayramov
55 B. Huseynov

Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.