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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Lazio

S U T S S

1–2

Full-time

Bologna

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 47%

48%

46%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

39%

46%

Both score Ø 49%

48%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,12 xG 1,39

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 8. · Bologna 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	24	20	3	1	+47	+32.8	63
2	Juventus	25	16	6	3	+21	+20.9	54
3	Milan	24	16	4	4	+20	+9.1	52
4	Atalanta	24	14	3	7	+24	+13.4	45
5	Bologna	24	11	9	4	+13	+5.9	42
6	Roma	24	11	5	8	+12	+10.9	38
7	Fiorentina	24	11	4	9	+8	-1.3	37
8	Lazio	23	11	4	8	+4	+3.8	37
9	Napoli	24	10	6	8	+5	+14.2	36
10	Torino	24	9	9	6	+3	+2.6	36
11	Genoa	25	7	9	9	-5	-5.2	30
12	Monza	24	7	9	8	-7	-10.5	30
13	Lecce	25	5	9	11	-15	-11.3	24
14	Frosinone	24	6	5	13	-17	-10.8	23
15	Udinese	24	3	13	8	-13	-6.9	22
16	Empoli	24	5	6	13	-19	-9.1	21
17	Verona	25	4	8	13	-11	-8.5	20
18	Sassuolo	24	5	5	14	-16	-11.5	20
19	Cagliari	24	4	6	14	-23	-9.6	18
20	Salernitana	25	2	7	16	-31	-28.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	13	10	2	1	+17	+5.5	32
2	Inter	12	10	1	1	+24	+20.8	31
3	Atalanta	13	10	1	2	+22	+12.1	31
4	Milan	12	9	1	2	+14	+6.5	28
5	Roma	13	8	3	2	+17	+9.4	27
6	Juventus	12	8	3	1	+11	+11.8	27
7	Fiorentina	12	7	2	3	+10	+3.7	23
8	Torino	12	6	5	1	+8	+6.6	23
9	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+5	+5.2	21
10	Frosinone	12	6	2	4	+3	-0.6	20
11	Lecce	12	5	4	3	-2	-0.9	19
12	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+1	+9.3	18
13	Monza	12	4	5	3	+1	-3.5	17
14	Genoa	12	4	5	3	-1	-2.9	17
15	Cagliari	12	4	3	5	-6	+3.1	15
16	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.0	14
17	Sassuolo	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.8	12
18	Udinese	12	1	7	4	-4	+1.1	10
19	Empoli	12	2	3	7	-9	-3.9	9
20	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-14	-10.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	2	0	+23	+12.0	32
2	Juventus	13	8	3	2	+10	+9.1	27
3	Milan	12	7	3	2	+6	+2.6	24
4	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+4	+4.9	18
5	Lazio	12	5	1	6	-1	-1.4	16
6	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	+2	+1.3	14
7	Fiorentina	12	4	2	6	-2	-5.0	14
8	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.3	13
9	Torino	12	3	4	5	-5	-4.0	13
10	Monza	12	3	4	5	-8	-7.0	13
11	Udinese	12	2	6	4	-9	-8.0	12
12	Empoli	12	3	3	6	-10	-5.3	12
13	Roma	11	3	2	6	-5	+1.4	11
14	Bologna	11	1	7	3	-4	+0.4	10
15	Sassuolo	13	2	2	9	-14	-9.6	8
16	Verona	13	1	3	9	-9	-6.5	6
17	Salernitana	12	1	3	8	-17	-18.9	6
18	Lecce	13	0	5	8	-13	-10.4	5
19	Cagliari	12	0	3	9	-17	-12.7	3
20	Frosinone	12	0	3	9	-20	-10.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.