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Serie A

Referee: Luca Banti

Lazio

S S T S U

4–1

Full-time

Parma

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Serie A · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 40%

46%

33%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

46%

52%

Both score Ø 51%

58%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

54% Possession 46%

23 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 9. · Parma 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	28	24	3	1	+40	75
2	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+27	57
3	Milan	27	14	9	4	+18	51
4	Inter	27	15	5	7	+18	50
5	Roma	28	13	8	7	+13	47
6	Atalanta	27	13	5	9	+18	44
7	Torino	28	11	11	6	+11	44
8	Sampdoria	28	12	6	10	+11	42
9	Lazio	26	12	6	8	+9	42
10	Fiorentina	28	8	13	7	+8	37
11	Genoa	28	8	9	11	-8	33
12	Parma	27	9	6	12	-11	33
13	Sassuolo	28	7	11	10	-8	32
14	Cagliari	28	7	9	12	-15	30
15	Spal	28	6	8	14	-17	26
16	Udinese	26	6	7	13	-14	25
17	Bologna	28	5	9	14	-17	24
18	Empoli	27	5	7	15	-19	22
19	Frosinone	27	3	8	16	-31	17
20	Chievo	27	1	10	16	-33	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	2	0	+23	38
2	Napoli	14	10	3	1	+20	33
3	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	30
4	Inter	13	9	2	2	+15	29
5	Roma	13	8	4	1	+13	28
6	Torino	14	8	1	5	+7	25
7	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+9	24
8	Cagliari	14	6	6	2	+5	24
9	Genoa	15	6	6	3	+4	24
10	Sampdoria	13	7	2	4	+10	23
11	Fiorentina	13	5	6	2	+9	21
12	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+9	21
13	Sassuolo	15	4	7	4	-4	19
14	Empoli	14	5	3	6	-1	18
15	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Parma	14	4	4	6	-6	16
17	Spal	14	3	6	5	-6	15
18	Bologna	13	3	4	6	-7	13
19	Chievo	14	1	5	8	-14	8
20	Frosinone	13	0	5	8	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	1	1	+17	37
2	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+7	24
3	Atalanta	14	7	2	5	+9	23
4	Milan	13	5	6	2	+7	21
5	Inter	14	6	3	5	+3	21
6	Torino	14	3	10	1	+4	19
7	Sampdoria	15	5	4	6	+1	19
8	Roma	15	5	4	6	+0	19
9	Lazio	13	5	3	5	+0	18
10	Parma	13	5	2	6	-5	17
11	Fiorentina	15	3	7	5	-1	16
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-4	13
13	Frosinone	14	3	3	8	-13	12
14	Bologna	15	2	5	8	-10	11
15	Spal	14	3	2	9	-11	11
16	Genoa	13	2	3	8	-12	9
17	Udinese	12	1	4	7	-10	7
18	Cagliari	14	1	3	10	-20	6
19	Chievo	13	0	5	8	-19	5
20	Empoli	13	0	4	9	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.