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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Napoli
S T S T U
1–1
Full-time
Milan
T S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,2
Scored
1,5
1,3
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 67%
78%
56%
Points per game
2,3
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
67%
44%
Both score Ø 28%
33%
22%
Average goals
3,6
2,3
Scored
2,8
1,6
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,24 xG 2,00
74% Possession 26%
23 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 4
9 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
16 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Apr -23 Milan – Napoli 1–0 2. Apr -23 Napoli – Milan 0–4 18. Sep -22 Milan – Napoli 1–2 6. Mar -22 Napoli – Milan 0–1 19. Dec -21 Milan – Napoli 0–1

Match report

Napoli Milan
H. Lozano 🔁
↦ M. Politano
34′
M. Olivera 🔁
↦ Mário Rui
34′
43′
⚽ O. Giroud 0–1
Rafael Leão
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Theo Hernández
51′
🟨 Mike Maignan
Giovanni Di Lorenzo 🟨
52′
59′
🔁 Junior Messias
↦ Brahim Díaz
E. Elmas 🔁
↦ T. Ndombélé
63′
68′
🔁 D. Origi
↦ O. Giroud
G. Raspadori 🔁
↦ P. Zieliński
74′
L. Østigård 🔁
↦ A. Rrahmani
74′
84′
🔁 A. Saelemaekers
↦ Rafael Leão
Mathías Olivera 🟨
93′
1–1 V. Osimhen ⚽
G. Raspadori
93′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
13 A. Rrahmani D
5 Juan Jesus D
6 Mário Rui D
91 T. Ndombélé M
68 S. Lobotka M
20 P. Zieliński M
21 M. Politano F
9 V. Osimhen F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (9)
11 H. Lozano
17 M. Olivera
7 E. Elmas
81 G. Raspadori
55 L. Østigård
16 H. Idasiak
95 P. Gollini
70 G. Gaetano
19 B. Bereszyński

Coach: L. Spalletti

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
24 S. Kjær D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
33 R. Krunić M
8 S. Tonali M
10 Brahim Díaz M
4 I. Bennacer M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (12)
30 Junior Messias
27 D. Origi
56 A. Saelemaekers
25 A. Florenzi
90 C. De Ketelaere
83 A. Mirante
32 T. Pobega
20 P. Kalulu
5 F. Ballo
12 A. Rebić
28 M. Thiaw
46 M. Gabbia

Coach: S. Pioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.