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Europa League
Referee: F Zwayer
Brighton
U T T T S
1–0
Full-time
Roma
U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,8
Scored
1,2
2,8
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/9 matches
Win Ø 57%
57%
56%
Points per game
1,9
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
43%
44%
Both score Ø 37%
29%
44%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
1,4
2,0
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,42 xG 0,40
65% Possession 35%
21 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 1
0 Offside 4
15 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Mar -24 Roma – Brighton 4–0

Match report

Brighton Roma
12′
🟨 Gianluca Mancini
Tariq Lamptey 🟨
31′
35′
🟨 Evan Ndicka
1–0 D. Welbeck ⚽
P. Estupiñán
37′
Pervis Estupiñán 🟨
40′
40′
🟨 Lorenzo Pellegrini
Half-time 1–0
46′
🟨 Mile Svilar
F. Buonanotte 🔁
↦ A. Lallana
53′
Ansu Fati 🔁
↦ J. Enciso
53′
E. Ferguson 🔁
↦ T. Lamptey
61′
Igor Julio 🔁
↦ P. Estupiñán
61′
73′
🔁 Diego Llorente
↦ N. Zalewski
83′
🔁 H. Aouar
↦ T. Baldanzi
C. Baleba 🔁
↦ B. Gilmour
85′
86′
🟨 Zeki Çelik
91′
🔁 João Costa
↦ S. Azmoun
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Brighton

4-2-3-1
1 B. Verbruggen G
2 T. Lamptey D
29 J. van Hecke D
5 L. Dunk D
30 P. Estupiñán D
11 B. Gilmour M
13 P. Groß M
24 S. Adingra M
14 A. Lallana M
10 J. Enciso M
18 D. Welbeck F
Bench (12)
40 F. Buonanotte
31 Ansu Fati
28 E. Ferguson
3 Igor Julio
20 C. Baleba
38 T. McGill
15 J. Moder
34 J. Veltman
44 C. Peupion
47 B. Baker-Boaitey
4 A. Webster
23 J. Steele

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Roma

4-3-3
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
23 G. Mancini D
5 E. Ndicka D
37 L. Spinazzola D
52 E. Bove M
4 B. Cristante M
7 L. Pellegrini M
35 T. Baldanzi F
17 S. Azmoun F
59 N. Zalewski F
Bench (12)
14 Diego Llorente
22 H. Aouar
67 João Costa
60 R. Pagano
21 P. Dybala
69 Angeliño
63 P. Boer
16 L. Paredes
61 N. Pisilli
2 R. Karsdorp
92 S. El Shaarawy
1 Rui Patrício

Coach: D. De Rossi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.