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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

West Ham

T U T U T

3–1

Full-time

Luton

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,7

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 27%

36%

17%

Points per game

1,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

67%

69%

Both score Ø 74%

67%

81%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

3,17 xG 0,32

58% Possession 42%

24 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match West Ham 9. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	36	26	7	3	+58	+43.7	85
2	Arsenal	36	26	5	5	+60	+45.9	83
3	Liverpool	36	23	9	4	+43	+40.4	78
4	Aston Villa	36	20	7	9	+20	+4.1	67
5	Tottenham	35	18	6	11	+11	+0.9	60
6	Newcastle	35	17	5	13	+22	+11.2	56
7	Chelsea	35	15	9	11	+11	+16.9	54
8	Man United	35	16	6	13	-3	-10.8	54
9	West Ham	36	13	10	13	-14	-20.4	49
10	Bournemouth	36	13	9	14	-11	-2.8	48
11	Brighton	35	12	11	12	-4	+2.1	47
12	Wolves	36	13	7	16	-11	-16.1	46
13	Everton	36	12	9	15	-11	-0.6	45
14	Fulham	37	12	8	17	-8	-11.6	44
15	Crystal Palace	36	11	10	15	-8	-6.3	43
16	Brentford	36	9	9	18	-8	+5.0	36
17	Nott'm Forest	36	8	9	19	-18	-4.1	33
18	Luton	36	6	8	22	-29	-34.7	26
19	Burnley	36	5	9	22	-35	-28.4	24
20	Sheffield United	36	3	7	26	-65	-34.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	3	1	+30	+33.8	45
2	Man City	18	13	5	0	+33	+25.8	44
3	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+31	+28.5	44
4	Newcastle	18	12	3	3	+27	+21.0	39
5	Aston Villa	18	12	3	3	+20	+11.7	39
6	Tottenham	17	12	0	5	+12	+9.1	36
7	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+17	+20.6	34
8	Brighton	17	8	6	3	+6	+7.0	30
9	Man United	17	9	3	5	+3	+2.4	30
10	Fulham	19	9	2	8	+7	-0.2	29
11	Bournemouth	18	7	6	5	+0	+3.7	27
12	Wolves	18	8	3	7	-2	-6.3	27
13	West Ham	18	6	8	4	+1	-6.5	26
14	Crystal Palace	18	7	4	7	+6	+4.9	25
15	Everton	18	7	4	7	+3	+8.0	25
16	Brentford	18	5	7	6	-3	+4.2	22
17	Nott'm Forest	18	5	5	8	-2	+2.9	20
18	Luton	18	4	4	10	-7	-6.2	16
19	Burnley	18	2	4	12	-23	-6.6	10
20	Sheffield United	18	2	4	12	-35	-11.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	18	13	2	3	+25	+18.0	41
2	Arsenal	18	12	3	3	+29	+17.4	39
3	Liverpool	18	9	6	3	+13	+6.6	33
4	Aston Villa	18	8	4	6	+0	-7.7	28
5	Tottenham	18	6	6	6	-1	-8.2	24
6	Man United	18	7	3	8	-6	-13.3	24
7	West Ham	18	7	2	9	-15	-13.9	23
8	Bournemouth	18	6	3	9	-11	-6.5	21
9	Chelsea	17	5	5	7	-6	-3.7	20
10	Everton	18	5	5	8	-14	-8.6	20
11	Wolves	18	5	4	9	-9	-9.7	19
12	Crystal Palace	18	4	6	8	-14	-11.1	18
13	Newcastle	17	5	2	10	-5	-9.8	17
14	Brighton	18	4	5	9	-10	-4.9	17
15	Fulham	18	3	6	9	-15	-11.4	15
16	Brentford	18	4	2	12	-5	+0.8	14
17	Burnley	18	3	5	10	-12	-21.8	14
18	Nott'm Forest	18	3	4	11	-16	-7.1	13
19	Luton	18	2	4	12	-22	-28.4	10
20	Sheffield United	18	1	3	14	-30	-22.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.