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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Man City

S U S S U

5–1

Full-time

Luton

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 44%

68%

19%

Points per game

2,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

61%

69%

Both score Ø 72%

65%

78%

Average goals

3,3

3,4

Scored

2,3

1,4

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

4,32 xG 0,51

74% Possession 26%

33 Shots 4

13 Shots on target 2

10 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

12 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Luton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	31	22	5	4	+51	+40.8	71
2	Liverpool	31	21	8	2	+42	+35.3	71
3	Man City	31	21	7	3	+40	+33.7	70
4	Aston Villa	32	18	6	8	+17	+7.0	60
5	Tottenham	32	18	6	8	+16	+2.2	60
6	Newcastle	32	15	5	12	+17	+7.6	50
7	Man United	31	15	4	12	-1	-11.8	49
8	West Ham	32	13	9	10	-4	-12.6	48
9	Chelsea	30	12	8	10	+3	+12.7	44
10	Brighton	31	11	10	10	+2	+2.4	43
11	Wolves	31	12	6	13	-5	-9.9	42
12	Bournemouth	31	11	8	12	-10	-2.1	41
13	Fulham	32	11	6	15	-4	-11.4	39
14	Everton	31	9	8	14	-10	+1.8	35
15	Crystal Palace	31	7	9	15	-18	-8.3	30
16	Brentford	32	7	8	17	-13	+2.9	29
17	Nott'm Forest	32	7	8	17	-16	-5.9	29
18	Luton	32	6	7	19	-20	-27.1	25
19	Burnley	32	4	7	21	-35	-25.9	19
20	Sheffield United	31	3	7	21	-52	-31.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+29	+30.8	42
2	Man City	16	11	5	0	+25	+18.6	38
3	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+25	+23.1	38
4	Newcastle	17	11	3	3	+23	+19.4	36
5	Tottenham	16	12	0	4	+13	+7.7	36
6	Aston Villa	16	11	2	3	+18	+11.5	35
7	Fulham	16	9	1	6	+13	+3.0	28
8	Brighton	15	7	6	2	+9	+5.2	27
9	Man United	15	8	2	5	+1	-0.3	26
10	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+4	+15.2	25
11	West Ham	16	6	7	3	+3	-3.1	25
12	Wolves	15	7	3	5	+0	-4.4	24
13	Bournemouth	16	6	5	5	-3	+2.2	23
14	Nott'm Forest	16	5	4	7	+0	+1.0	19
15	Brentford	16	4	6	6	-5	+4.6	18
16	Everton	15	4	4	7	-2	+9.4	16
17	Crystal Palace	15	4	4	7	-3	+1.8	16
18	Luton	16	4	3	9	-3	-3.1	15
19	Sheffield United	16	2	4	10	-30	-12.5	10
20	Burnley	16	2	3	11	-20	-5.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	10	3	3	+26	+17.7	33
2	Man City	15	10	2	3	+15	+15.2	32
3	Liverpool	15	8	5	2	+13	+4.6	29
4	Aston Villa	16	7	4	5	-1	-4.5	25
5	Tottenham	16	6	6	4	+3	-5.5	24
6	Man United	16	7	2	7	-2	-11.5	23
7	West Ham	16	7	2	7	-7	-9.5	23
8	Chelsea	15	5	4	6	-1	-2.4	19
9	Everton	16	5	4	7	-8	-7.6	19
10	Wolves	16	5	3	8	-5	-5.5	18
11	Bournemouth	15	5	3	7	-7	-4.3	18
12	Brighton	16	4	4	8	-7	-2.8	16
13	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-6	-11.8	14
14	Crystal Palace	16	3	5	8	-15	-10.2	14
15	Brentford	16	3	2	11	-8	-1.7	11
16	Fulham	16	2	5	9	-17	-14.5	11
17	Burnley	16	2	4	10	-15	-20.9	10
18	Nott'm Forest	16	2	4	10	-16	-6.9	10
19	Luton	16	2	4	10	-17	-24.0	10
20	Sheffield United	15	1	3	11	-22	-19.1	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.