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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Luton

S U T T S

1–2

Full-time

West Ham

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton West Ham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

3,3

Scored

0,5

2,3

Conceded

3,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,47 xG 1,03

39% Possession 61%

16 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

9 Corners 6

0 Offside 6

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 19. · West Ham 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+5	+5.5	9
2	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
3	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.1	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
5	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
6	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.9	6
7	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.7	6
8	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.8	6
9	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+3	+4.6	5
10	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.6	4
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
12	Fulham	3	1	1	1	-2	-7.3	4
13	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	+2	+2.0	3
14	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.4	3
15	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.2	3
16	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.9	1
17	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-3	-5.2	0
18	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.7	0
19	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0
20	Everton	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
2	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.9	4
3	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.3	4
4	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
5	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.8	3
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
7	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
8	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
9	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.8	3
10	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
11	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
12	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
14	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
15	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-4.3	0
16	Everton	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.5	0
17	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.1	0
18	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.7	6
2	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
3	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
4	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.9	4
5	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
6	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
8	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
9	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
10	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.3	3
12	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
13	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
14	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.3	0
15	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
16	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
17	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
18	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0
19	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.