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Premier League

Referee: T Robinson

Luton

T S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Everton

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Everton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 26%

17%

34%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 59%

80%

37%

Average goals

3,6

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

2,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,81 xG 1,42

50% Possession 50%

18 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 7

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 18. · Everton 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	35	25	5	5	+57	+43.0	80
2	Man City	34	24	7	3	+50	+37.2	79
3	Liverpool	35	22	9	4	+41	+38.2	75
4	Aston Villa	35	20	7	8	+21	+6.5	67
5	Tottenham	34	18	6	10	+13	+3.0	60
6	Man United	34	16	6	12	+1	-9.4	54
7	Newcastle	34	16	5	13	+19	+8.7	53
8	Chelsea	34	14	9	11	+6	+13.6	51
9	West Ham	35	13	10	12	-9	-17.1	49
10	Bournemouth	35	13	9	13	-8	+0.1	48
11	Wolves	35	13	7	15	-7	-12.7	46
12	Brighton	34	11	11	12	-5	-0.4	44
13	Everton	35	12	8	15	-11	-1.2	44
14	Fulham	35	12	7	16	-4	-9.1	43
15	Crystal Palace	35	10	10	15	-12	-7.7	40
16	Brentford	35	9	8	18	-8	+5.7	35
17	Nott'm Forest	35	7	9	19	-20	-3.4	30
18	Luton	35	6	7	22	-29	-34.0	25
19	Burnley	35	5	9	21	-32	-25.9	24
20	Sheffield United	35	3	7	25	-63	-35.1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	3	1	+28	+31.6	42
2	Man City	17	12	5	0	+29	+22.4	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+28	+25.6	41
4	Newcastle	18	12	3	3	+27	+21.0	39
5	Aston Villa	18	12	3	3	+20	+11.7	39
6	Tottenham	17	12	0	5	+12	+9.1	36
7	Chelsea	17	9	4	4	+12	+17.3	31
8	Man United	17	9	3	5	+3	+2.4	30
9	Fulham	18	9	2	7	+11	+2.9	29
10	Brighton	16	7	6	3	+5	+4.5	27
11	Bournemouth	18	7	6	5	+0	+3.7	27
12	Wolves	18	8	3	7	-2	-6.3	27
13	West Ham	18	6	8	4	+1	-6.5	26
14	Everton	18	7	4	7	+3	+8.0	25
15	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	+2	+3.5	22
16	Brentford	17	5	6	6	-3	+4.8	21
17	Nott'm Forest	18	5	5	8	-2	+2.9	20
18	Luton	17	4	3	10	-7	-5.6	15
19	Burnley	17	2	4	11	-20	-4.1	10
20	Sheffield United	17	2	4	11	-33	-12.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	12	3	3	+29	+17.4	39
2	Man City	17	12	2	3	+21	+14.8	38
3	Liverpool	18	9	6	3	+13	+6.6	33
4	Aston Villa	17	8	4	5	+1	-5.2	28
5	Tottenham	17	6	6	5	+1	-6.1	24
6	Man United	17	7	3	7	-2	-11.9	24
7	West Ham	17	7	2	8	-10	-10.6	23
8	Bournemouth	17	6	3	8	-8	-3.6	21
9	Chelsea	17	5	5	7	-6	-3.7	20
10	Wolves	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.3	19
11	Everton	17	5	4	8	-14	-9.2	19
12	Crystal Palace	18	4	6	8	-14	-11.1	18
13	Brighton	18	4	5	9	-10	-4.9	17
14	Brentford	18	4	2	12	-5	+0.8	14
15	Newcastle	16	4	2	10	-8	-12.3	14
16	Burnley	18	3	5	10	-12	-21.8	14
17	Fulham	17	3	5	9	-15	-12.1	14
18	Nott'm Forest	17	2	4	11	-18	-6.3	10
19	Luton	18	2	4	12	-22	-28.4	10
20	Sheffield United	18	1	3	14	-30	-22.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.