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Serie A

Referee: P Giacomelli

Spezia

S U U T T

2–2

Full-time

Bologna

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 27%

18%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

82%

64%

Both score Ø 64%

64%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,4

1,5

Conceded

2,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

7 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

4 Offside 4

19 Free kicks against 11

6 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 16. · Bologna 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	11	8	3	0	+14	27
2	Napoli	10	8	0	2	+18	24
3	Inter	11	7	3	1	+14	24
4	Sassuolo	11	6	4	1	+9	22
5	Juventus	11	5	6	0	+11	21
6	Roma	11	6	3	2	+8	21
7	Verona	11	5	4	2	+6	19
8	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+5	18
9	Lazio	12	5	3	4	-2	18
10	Udinese	11	4	2	5	-1	14
11	Cagliari	11	3	3	5	-5	12
12	Bologna	11	4	0	7	-6	12
13	Benevento	12	3	3	6	-10	12
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-3	11
15	Parma	11	2	5	4	-7	11
16	Spezia	11	2	4	5	-8	10
17	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Torino	11	1	3	7	-8	6
19	Genoa	11	1	3	7	-12	6
20	Crotone	12	1	3	8	-15	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+10	12
2	Milan	6	3	3	0	+7	12
3	Roma	5	3	2	0	+8	11
4	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+6	11
5	Verona	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Inter	5	3	1	1	+4	10
7	Sassuolo	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Bologna	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Parma	5	1	3	1	-1	6
14	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Benevento	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	+0	4
17	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Genoa	6	1	0	5	-5	3
19	Torino	6	0	2	4	-5	2
20	Spezia	5	0	2	3	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	14
3	Sassuolo	5	4	1	0	+8	13
4	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+3	13
5	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	12
6	Atalanta	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Juventus	6	2	4	0	+5	10
8	Roma	6	3	1	2	+0	10
9	Verona	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Spezia	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Udinese	5	2	1	2	+1	7
12	Sampdoria	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Benevento	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Parma	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Torino	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-7	3
19	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-8	2
20	Crotone	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.