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Serie A

Referee: G Calvarese

Milan

S T S U S

2–1

Full-time

Genoa

T U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 43%

63%

23%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

57%

60%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

53% Possession 47%

18 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Genoa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	30	23	5	2	+42	74
2	Milan	30	19	6	5	+22	63
3	Juventus	30	18	8	4	+34	62
4	Atalanta	30	18	7	5	+33	61
5	Napoli	30	19	2	9	+31	59
6	Lazio	29	17	4	8	+8	55
7	Roma	30	16	6	8	+10	54
8	Sassuolo	31	12	10	9	+3	46
9	Verona	31	11	8	12	+1	41
10	Sampdoria	31	11	6	14	-4	39
11	Udinese	31	9	9	13	-7	36
12	Bologna	30	9	7	14	-7	34
13	Genoa	30	7	11	12	-12	32
14	Spezia	30	8	8	14	-15	32
15	Fiorentina	31	7	9	15	-13	30
16	Benevento	30	7	9	14	-25	30
17	Torino	29	5	12	12	-10	27
18	Cagliari	31	6	7	18	-19	25
19	Parma	31	3	11	17	-31	20
20	Crotone	31	4	3	24	-41	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	15	13	1	1	+24	40
2	Juventus	16	12	2	2	+22	38
3	Roma	16	11	3	2	+17	36
4	Napoli	14	10	1	3	+23	31
5	Atalanta	15	9	3	3	+19	30
6	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+6	29
7	Milan	15	6	5	4	+5	23
8	Sampdoria	16	7	2	7	+1	23
9	Sassuolo	15	5	7	3	+3	22
10	Bologna	14	6	3	5	+2	21
11	Verona	15	6	3	6	+1	21
12	Fiorentina	16	5	5	6	+0	20
13	Genoa	15	4	6	5	-1	18
14	Udinese	15	5	3	7	-2	18
15	Spezia	15	4	5	6	-5	17
16	Cagliari	16	4	3	9	-10	15
17	Crotone	15	4	1	10	-10	13
18	Benevento	16	2	6	8	-16	12
19	Torino	14	1	8	5	-5	11
20	Parma	16	2	5	9	-17	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	15	13	1	1	+17	40
2	Inter	15	10	4	1	+18	34
3	Atalanta	15	9	4	2	+14	31
4	Napoli	16	9	1	6	+8	28
5	Lazio	15	8	2	5	+2	26
6	Juventus	14	6	6	2	+12	24
7	Sassuolo	16	7	3	6	+0	24
8	Verona	16	5	5	6	+0	20
9	Udinese	16	4	6	6	-5	18
10	Roma	14	5	3	6	-7	18
11	Benevento	14	5	3	6	-9	18
12	Torino	15	4	4	7	-5	16
13	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-5	16
14	Spezia	15	4	3	8	-10	15
15	Genoa	15	3	5	7	-11	14
16	Bologna	16	3	4	9	-9	13
17	Cagliari	15	2	4	9	-9	10
18	Fiorentina	15	2	4	9	-13	10
19	Parma	15	1	6	8	-14	9
20	Crotone	16	0	2	14	-31	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.