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Serie A

Referee: Fabrizio Pasqua

Milan

U S S T S

2–1

Full-time

Genoa

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 44%

44%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

89%

78%

Average goals

3,4

3,6

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

28 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 7. · Genoa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	9	1	0	+14	28
2	Inter	10	7	1	2	+10	22
3	Napoli	10	7	1	2	+8	22
4	Lazio	10	6	0	4	+1	18
5	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	+8	15
6	Sampdoria	10	4	3	3	+7	15
7	Milan	9	4	3	2	+5	15
8	Roma	10	4	3	3	+4	15
9	Sassuolo	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Torino	10	3	5	2	+0	14
11	Genoa	9	4	2	3	-2	14
12	Cagliari	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	Parma	10	4	1	5	-4	13
14	Atalanta	10	3	3	4	+5	12
15	Spal	10	4	0	6	-5	12
16	Udinese	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Bologna	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Empoli	10	1	3	6	-6	6
19	Frosinone	10	1	2	7	-15	5
20	Chievo	10	0	2	8	-18	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	5	4	1	0	+11	13
2	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	Milan	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Inter	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Sassuolo	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Genoa	5	3	1	1	+2	10
8	Cagliari	5	2	3	0	+3	9
9	Lazio	5	3	0	2	+1	9
10	Roma	5	2	2	1	+4	8
11	Sampdoria	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+5	7
13	Parma	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Torino	5	2	1	2	-1	7
15	Bologna	5	2	1	2	-1	7
16	Spal	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Udinese	5	1	1	3	-5	4
19	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Chievo	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Inter	5	4	0	1	+7	12
3	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+1	9
4	Lazio	5	3	0	2	+0	9
5	Sampdoria	5	2	1	2	+4	7
6	Torino	5	1	4	0	+1	7
7	Roma	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Spal	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Parma	5	2	0	3	-4	6
10	Milan	5	1	2	2	+1	5
11	Atalanta	5	1	2	2	+0	5
12	Udinese	5	1	2	2	+0	5
13	Sassuolo	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Cagliari	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Frosinone	5	1	0	4	-7	3
17	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Empoli	5	0	2	3	-4	2
19	Bologna	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Chievo	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.