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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Roma

T S U T S

1–0

Full-time

Genoa

S U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 40%

56%

24%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

76%

52%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

18 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 5. · Genoa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	25	18	5	2	+37	59
2	Milan	25	16	5	4	+18	53
3	Juventus	25	15	7	3	+30	52
4	Atalanta	25	14	7	4	+28	49
5	Roma	25	14	5	6	+12	47
6	Napoli	24	14	2	8	+24	44
7	Lazio	25	13	4	8	+4	43
8	Verona	25	10	8	7	+7	38
9	Sassuolo	25	9	9	7	+1	36
10	Udinese	26	8	8	10	-5	32
11	Sampdoria	25	9	4	12	-3	31
12	Bologna	25	7	7	11	-6	28
13	Genoa	25	6	9	10	-10	27
14	Spezia	26	6	8	12	-14	26
15	Benevento	26	6	8	12	-22	26
16	Fiorentina	25	6	7	12	-12	25
17	Cagliari	25	5	6	14	-14	21
18	Torino	23	3	11	9	-8	20
19	Parma	25	2	9	14	-29	15
20	Crotone	25	3	3	19	-38	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	10	2	1	+20	32
2	Inter	12	10	1	1	+21	31
3	Roma	13	9	3	1	+17	30
4	Napoli	12	8	1	3	+20	25
5	Atalanta	13	7	3	3	+16	24
6	Lazio	12	7	2	3	+4	23
7	Milan	13	6	4	3	+6	22
8	Verona	12	6	3	3	+6	21
9	Fiorentina	13	5	4	4	+2	19
10	Bologna	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Udinese	13	5	3	5	+0	18
12	Sampdoria	12	5	1	6	+0	16
13	Genoa	13	4	4	5	-1	16
14	Sassuolo	12	3	6	3	+0	15
15	Cagliari	13	3	3	7	-7	12
16	Spezia	13	2	5	6	-7	11
17	Benevento	13	2	5	6	-12	11
18	Crotone	12	3	1	8	-10	10
19	Parma	13	1	5	7	-16	8
20	Torino	11	0	7	4	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	12	10	1	1	+12	31
2	Inter	13	8	4	1	+16	28
3	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+12	25
4	Sassuolo	13	6	3	4	+1	21
5	Juventus	12	5	5	2	+10	20
6	Lazio	13	6	2	5	+0	20
7	Napoli	12	6	1	5	+4	19
8	Verona	13	4	5	4	+1	17
9	Roma	12	5	2	5	-5	17
10	Sampdoria	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	Spezia	13	4	3	6	-7	15
12	Benevento	13	4	3	6	-10	15
13	Udinese	13	3	5	5	-5	14
14	Torino	12	3	4	5	-3	13
15	Genoa	12	2	5	5	-9	11
16	Bologna	13	2	4	7	-7	10
17	Cagliari	12	2	3	7	-7	9
18	Parma	12	1	4	7	-13	7
19	Fiorentina	12	1	3	8	-14	6
20	Crotone	13	0	2	11	-28	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.