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Serie A
Referee: D Doveri
Parma
U U T U S
1–2
Full-time
Genoa
U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Genoa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,0
Scored
1,8
0,7
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 17%
11%
22%
Points per game
0,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
63%
48%
Both score Ø 52%
48%
56%
Average goals
2,9
2,5
Scored
0,9
1,0
Conceded
1,9
1,4
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%
12 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 7
1 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
22 Free kicks against 8
5 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Parma 19. · Genoa 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 27 20 5 2 +39 65
2 Milan 27 17 5 5 +19 56
3 Juventus 26 16 7 3 +32 55
4 Atalanta 27 15 7 5 +29 52
5 Napoli 26 16 2 8 +27 50
6 Roma 27 15 5 7 +11 50
7 Lazio 26 14 4 8 +5 46
8 Sassuolo 27 10 9 8 +1 39
9 Verona 27 10 8 9 +4 38
10 Udinese 27 8 9 10 -5 33
11 Sampdoria 27 9 5 13 -5 32
12 Bologna 27 8 7 12 -6 31
13 Fiorentina 27 7 8 12 -9 29
14 Genoa 27 6 10 11 -11 28
15 Spezia 27 6 8 13 -16 26
16 Benevento 27 6 8 13 -25 26
17 Torino 26 4 11 11 -10 23
18 Cagliari 27 5 7 15 -16 22
19 Parma 27 3 10 14 -27 19
20 Crotone 27 4 3 20 -37 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Parma Genoa
1–0 G. Pellè
J. Kucka
16′
Mattia Bani 🟨
19′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Pjaca
↦ L. Czyborra
46′
🔁 G. Scamacca
↦ E. Shomurodov
50′
G. Scamacca 1–1
D. Zappacosta
Giuseppe Pezzella 🟨
57′
V. Mihăilă 🔁
↦ Y. Karamoh
64′
64′
🔁 V. Behrami
↦ M. Destro
68′
🔁 D. Biraschi
↦ K. Strootman
69′
G. Scamacca 1–2
M. Pjaca
Graziano Pellè 🟨
71′
R. Gagliolo 🔁
↦ M. Bani
71′
72′
🟨 Ivan Radovanović
Gastón Brugman 🟨
78′
J. Zirkzee 🔁
↦ J. Kurtič
79′
M. Busi 🔁
↦ G. Pezzella
79′
Hernani 🔁
↦ G. Brugman
79′
84′
🟨 Davide Biraschi
Juraj Kucka 🟨
90′
90′
🔁 N. Rovella
↦ M. Zajc
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Parma

4-3-3
1 L. Sepe G
5 A. Conti D
13 M. Bani D
24 Y. Osorio D
3 G. Pezzella D
33 J. Kucka M
15 G. Brugman M
14 J. Kurtič M
9 G. Pellè F
10 Y. Karamoh F
98 D. Man F
Bench (12)
28 V. Mihăilă
7 R. Gagliolo
17 J. Zirkzee
42 M. Busi
23 Hernani
8 A. Grassi
32 J. Brunetta
22 Bruno Alves
29 D. Dierckx
16 V. Laurini
34 S. Colombi
18 W. Cyprien

Coach: R. D'Aversa

Genoa

3-5-2
1 M. Perin G
55 A. Masiello D
4 D. Criscito D
77 D. Zappacosta M
99 L. Czyborra M
20 K. Strootman M
21 I. Radovanović D
47 M. Badelj M
16 M. Zajc M
23 M. Destro F
61 E. Shomurodov F
Bench (12)
37 M. Pjaca
9 G. Scamacca
11 V. Behrami
14 D. Biraschi
65 N. Rovella
18 P. Ghiglione
22 F. Marchetti
5 E. Goldaniga
32 A. Paleari
2 C. Zapata
24 F. Melegoni
19 G. Pandev

Coach: D. Ballardini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,57
U
3,08
B ✓
3,03
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,25
U2,5
1,64
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Doveri · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.