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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

West Brom

T S T T U

0–3

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Brom Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 13/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

55%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

38%

64%

Both score Ø 41%

46%

36%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

0,8

1,9

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

32% Possession 68%

1 Shots 19

1 Shots on target 10

0 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match West Brom 19. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+17	31
2	Leicester	14	9	0	5	+9	27
3	Man United	13	8	2	3	+7	26
4	Everton	14	8	2	4	+6	26
5	Tottenham	14	7	4	3	+11	25
6	Southampton	14	7	3	4	+6	24
7	Man City	13	6	5	2	+7	23
8	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+12	22
9	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+5	21
10	Wolves	13	6	2	5	-4	20
11	Aston Villa	11	6	1	4	+8	19
12	Newcastle	13	5	3	5	-5	18
13	Crystal Palace	14	5	3	6	-6	18
14	Leeds	14	5	2	7	-6	17
15	Arsenal	14	4	2	8	-6	14
16	Brighton	14	2	6	6	-6	12
17	Fulham	14	2	4	8	-10	10
18	Burnley	12	2	4	6	-12	10
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-16	7
20	Sheffield United	14	0	2	12	-17	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+13	21
2	Everton	7	4	1	2	+4	13
3	Southampton	7	4	0	3	+4	12
4	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+7	11
5	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
8	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-4	10
10	Leicester	7	3	0	4	-1	9
11	Leeds	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Man United	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-6	8
14	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	+1	7
15	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
16	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	West Brom	6	1	2	3	-7	5
18	Brighton	7	0	4	3	-4	4
19	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	6	6	0	0	+10	18
2	Leicester	7	6	0	1	+10	18
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Everton	7	4	1	2	+2	13
5	Aston Villa	5	4	0	1	+7	12
6	Southampton	7	3	3	1	+2	12
7	Man City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
8	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+5	11
9	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+4	10
10	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
11	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	+0	10
12	Leeds	7	3	0	4	-5	9
13	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-5	9
14	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-1	8
15	Brighton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
16	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Burnley	7	1	3	3	-8	6
18	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	West Brom	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.