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Serie A

Referee: Fabio Maresca

Lazio

S T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Crotone

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,2

This season — Serie A · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 34%

56%

12%

Points per game

1,9

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

56%

59%

Both score Ø 61%

56%

65%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%

22 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

14 Corners 0

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 4. · Crotone 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	14	0	3	+22	42
2	Roma	18	12	2	4	+21	38
3	Napoli	19	11	5	3	+20	38
4	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+11	34
5	Inter	19	10	3	6	+8	33
6	Milan	17	10	3	4	+7	33
7	Atalanta	18	10	2	6	+6	32
8	Torino	18	8	4	6	+9	28
9	Fiorentina	18	7	6	5	+4	27
10	Udinese	19	7	4	8	-1	25
11	Chievo	18	7	4	7	-1	25
12	Genoa	18	6	5	7	-1	23
13	Sampdoria	19	6	5	8	-4	23
14	Cagliari	18	7	2	9	-15	23
15	Bologna	17	5	5	7	-5	20
16	Sassuolo	18	5	2	11	-9	17
17	Empoli	19	4	5	10	-15	17
18	Palermo	19	2	4	13	-20	10
19	Crotone	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Pescara	18	1	6	11	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	9	9	0	0	+20	27
2	Juventus	9	9	0	0	+18	27
3	Napoli	10	7	2	1	+12	23
4	Torino	9	6	2	1	+11	20
5	Inter	9	6	2	1	+11	20
6	Milan	9	6	2	1	+6	20
7	Lazio	9	6	1	2	+10	19
8	Cagliari	9	6	1	2	+1	19
9	Atalanta	9	6	0	3	+4	18
10	Sampdoria	9	5	2	2	+4	17
11	Fiorentina	9	4	5	0	+4	17
12	Genoa	9	4	4	1	+7	16
13	Chievo	9	4	3	2	+2	15
14	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+2	14
15	Udinese	10	4	2	4	+1	14
16	Sassuolo	8	4	0	4	-2	12
17	Empoli	10	3	2	5	-9	11
18	Crotone	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Pescara	9	0	4	5	-11	4
20	Palermo	9	0	1	8	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	9	4	3	2	+8	15
2	Juventus	8	5	0	3	+4	15
3	Lazio	9	4	3	2	+1	15
4	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+2	14
5	Milan	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Inter	10	4	1	5	-3	13
7	Roma	9	3	2	4	+1	11
8	Udinese	9	3	2	4	-2	11
9	Fiorentina	9	3	1	5	+0	10
10	Chievo	9	3	1	5	-3	10
11	Palermo	10	2	3	5	-6	9
12	Torino	9	2	2	5	-2	8
13	Genoa	9	2	1	6	-8	7
14	Empoli	9	1	3	5	-6	6
15	Bologna	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	Sampdoria	10	1	3	6	-8	6
17	Sassuolo	10	1	2	7	-7	5
18	Pescara	9	1	2	6	-8	5
19	Cagliari	9	1	1	7	-16	4
20	Crotone	9	0	1	8	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.