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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Lazio

S S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 48%

70%

26%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

70%

48%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 1

4 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lazio 2. · Fiorentina 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	28	22	3	3	+32	69
2	Lazio	27	19	5	3	+36	62
3	Inter	27	17	7	3	+26	58
4	Atalanta	27	16	6	5	+40	54
5	Roma	27	14	6	7	+17	48
6	Napoli	27	12	6	9	+7	42
7	Parma	27	11	6	10	+4	39
8	Milan	27	11	6	10	-3	39
9	Cagliari	28	10	8	10	+3	38
10	Verona	27	10	8	9	+2	38
11	Bologna	27	9	7	11	-6	34
12	Sassuolo	27	9	6	12	-1	33
13	Fiorentina	27	7	10	10	-4	31
14	Torino	28	9	4	15	-18	31
15	Udinese	27	7	7	13	-17	28
16	Sampdoria	27	7	5	15	-18	26
17	Genoa	28	6	8	14	-19	26
18	Lecce	28	6	7	15	-29	25
19	Spal	27	5	3	19	-25	18
20	Brescia	28	4	6	18	-27	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	13	1	0	+25	40
2	Lazio	14	11	3	0	+29	36
3	Inter	14	8	5	1	+14	29
4	Atalanta	14	8	2	4	+18	26
5	Roma	14	7	3	4	+8	24
6	Verona	14	7	3	4	+4	24
7	Cagliari	14	6	2	6	+4	20
8	Sassuolo	13	6	1	6	+6	19
9	Parma	13	6	1	6	+5	19
10	Udinese	13	5	4	4	-2	19
11	Torino	14	5	3	6	-10	18
12	Napoli	13	5	2	6	-1	17
13	Milan	13	4	5	4	-2	17
14	Bologna	14	4	5	5	-4	17
15	Sampdoria	14	4	4	6	-6	16
16	Fiorentina	14	3	6	5	-4	15
17	Genoa	13	4	1	8	-7	13
18	Lecce	14	2	5	7	-10	11
19	Spal	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Brescia	14	1	4	9	-12	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	2	2	+12	29
2	Juventus	14	9	2	3	+7	29
3	Atalanta	13	8	4	1	+22	28
4	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+7	26
5	Napoli	14	7	4	3	+8	25
6	Roma	13	7	3	3	+9	24
7	Milan	14	7	1	6	-1	22
8	Parma	14	5	5	4	-1	20
9	Cagliari	14	4	6	4	-1	18
10	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-2	17
11	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	+0	16
12	Verona	13	3	5	5	-2	14
13	Sassuolo	14	3	5	6	-7	14
14	Lecce	14	4	2	8	-19	14
15	Torino	14	4	1	9	-8	13
16	Genoa	15	2	7	6	-12	13
17	Brescia	14	3	2	9	-15	11
18	Sampdoria	13	3	1	9	-12	10
19	Spal	14	3	1	10	-15	10
20	Udinese	14	2	3	9	-15	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.