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Serie A

Referee: Davide Massa

Lazio

S S S S T

1–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,3

Scored

3,2

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 57%

75%

38%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 85%

92%

77%

Both score Ø 69%

75%

62%

Average goals

3,8

3,1

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 5. · Fiorentina 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	2	0	+26	38
2	Inter	14	11	3	0	+18	36
3	Juventus	13	10	1	2	+23	31
4	Roma	13	10	1	2	+15	31
5	Lazio	12	9	1	2	+18	28
6	Sampdoria	13	8	2	3	+9	26
7	Milan	14	6	2	6	+1	20
8	Bologna	14	6	2	6	+0	20
9	Chievo	14	5	5	4	-4	20
10	Torino	14	4	7	3	-2	19
11	Fiorentina	13	5	2	6	+4	17
12	Atalanta	13	4	4	5	+1	16
13	Cagliari	14	5	0	9	-11	15
14	Udinese	13	4	0	9	-6	12
15	Crotone	13	3	3	7	-13	12
16	Sassuolo	14	3	2	9	-16	11
17	Genoa	14	2	4	8	-8	10
18	Spal	14	2	4	8	-11	10
19	Verona	14	2	3	9	-17	9
20	Benevento	13	0	0	13	-27	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+10	19
2	Sampdoria	6	6	0	0	+14	18
3	Juventus	7	6	0	1	+14	18
4	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+14	16
5	Roma	7	5	0	2	+5	15
6	Atalanta	7	4	2	1	+8	14
7	Milan	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Chievo	7	3	2	2	-1	11
9	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+8	10
10	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	10
11	Torino	6	2	3	1	+3	9
12	Udinese	8	3	0	5	-2	9
13	Cagliari	7	3	0	4	-3	9
14	Bologna	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Spal	7	2	2	3	-2	8
16	Crotone	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Verona	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Genoa	7	0	2	5	-7	2
19	Sassuolo	7	0	2	5	-8	2
20	Benevento	7	0	0	7	-15	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Lazio	7	6	0	1	+10	18
3	Inter	7	5	2	0	+8	17
4	Roma	6	5	1	0	+10	16
5	Juventus	6	4	1	1	+9	13
6	Bologna	7	4	0	3	+1	12
7	Torino	8	2	4	2	-5	10
8	Milan	7	3	0	4	+1	9
9	Chievo	7	2	3	2	-3	9
10	Sassuolo	7	3	0	4	-8	9
11	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Sampdoria	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Fiorentina	7	2	1	4	+2	7
14	Cagliari	7	2	0	5	-8	6
15	Verona	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-10	4
17	Udinese	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Atalanta	6	0	2	4	-7	2
19	Spal	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Benevento	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.