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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Fiorentina

U U S U T

1–1

Full-time

Lazio

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,0

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 40%

31%

48%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

42%

48%

Both score Ø 57%

58%

56%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 10. · Lazio 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	27	24	3	0	+42	75
2	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+27	57
3	Milan	27	14	9	4	+18	51
4	Inter	27	15	5	7	+18	50
5	Atalanta	27	13	5	9	+18	44
6	Roma	26	12	8	6	+13	44
7	Torino	27	11	11	5	+12	44
8	Lazio	25	12	5	8	+9	41
9	Sampdoria	27	11	6	10	+9	39
10	Fiorentina	26	8	12	6	+9	36
11	Parma	27	9	6	12	-11	33
12	Sassuolo	27	7	11	9	-6	32
13	Genoa	27	7	9	11	-10	30
14	Cagliari	27	6	9	12	-16	27
15	Udinese	26	6	7	13	-14	25
16	Spal	27	5	8	14	-18	23
17	Empoli	26	5	7	14	-18	22
18	Bologna	27	4	9	14	-18	21
19	Frosinone	27	3	8	16	-31	17
20	Chievo	27	1	10	16	-33	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	12	2	0	+23	38
2	Napoli	14	10	3	1	+20	33
3	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	30
4	Inter	13	9	2	2	+15	29
5	Roma	12	7	4	1	+12	25
6	Torino	13	8	1	4	+8	25
7	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+9	24
8	Sampdoria	13	7	2	4	+10	23
9	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+9	21
10	Cagliari	13	5	6	2	+4	21
11	Genoa	14	5	6	3	+2	21
12	Fiorentina	12	5	5	2	+9	20
13	Sassuolo	14	4	7	3	-2	19
14	Empoli	14	5	3	6	-1	18
15	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Parma	14	4	4	6	-6	16
17	Bologna	13	3	4	6	-7	13
18	Spal	13	2	6	5	-7	12
19	Chievo	14	1	5	8	-14	8
20	Frosinone	13	0	5	8	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	12	1	0	+19	37
2	Napoli	13	7	3	3	+7	24
3	Atalanta	14	7	2	5	+9	23
4	Milan	13	5	6	2	+7	21
5	Inter	14	6	3	5	+3	21
6	Torino	14	3	10	1	+4	19
7	Roma	14	5	4	5	+1	19
8	Lazio	12	5	2	5	+0	17
9	Parma	13	5	2	6	-5	17
10	Fiorentina	14	3	7	4	+0	16
11	Sampdoria	14	4	4	6	-1	16
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-4	13
13	Frosinone	14	3	3	8	-13	12
14	Spal	14	3	2	9	-11	11
15	Genoa	13	2	3	8	-12	9
16	Bologna	14	1	5	8	-11	8
17	Udinese	12	1	4	7	-10	7
18	Cagliari	14	1	3	10	-20	6
19	Chievo	13	0	5	8	-19	5
20	Empoli	12	0	4	8	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.