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Championship

Referee: S Duncan

Derby

U T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Reading

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Reading

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

This season — Championship · 38/38 matches

Win Ø 36%

37%

34%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

53%

42%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

50% Possession 50%

13 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 8

2 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 12. · Reading 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	39	19	14	6	+26	71
2	Leeds	38	21	8	9	+24	71
3	Fulham	36	18	9	9	+13	63
4	Nott'm Forest	38	16	13	9	+10	61
5	Cardiff	38	15	14	9	+6	59
6	Brentford	36	16	9	11	+28	57
7	Preston	39	16	9	14	+3	57
8	Blackburn	38	15	11	12	+9	56
9	Swansea	37	14	14	9	+8	56
10	Bristol City	38	15	10	13	-4	55
11	Millwall	38	13	15	10	+3	54
12	Derby	38	14	12	12	+1	54
13	QPR	39	14	8	17	-6	50
14	Reading	38	13	10	15	+4	49
15	Sheffield Weds	38	13	10	15	-3	49
16	Birmingham	38	12	12	14	-9	48
17	Charlton	39	12	9	18	-8	45
18	Wigan	38	11	11	16	-10	44
19	Stoke	38	12	7	19	-6	43
20	Huddersfield	38	11	9	18	-15	42
21	Middlesbrough	38	9	14	15	-13	41
22	Hull	38	11	8	19	-15	41
23	Luton	39	11	6	22	-27	39
24	Barnsley	38	9	10	19	-19	37

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	12	2	6	+9	38
2	Derby	19	10	7	2	+15	37
3	Leeds	18	11	4	3	+13	37
4	Preston	20	11	3	6	+9	36
5	Blackburn	20	9	8	3	+10	35
6	Cardiff	18	9	7	2	+11	34
7	Brentford	17	9	5	3	+19	32
8	West Brom	19	8	8	3	+13	32
9	Millwall	19	8	7	4	+6	31
10	Swansea	19	8	5	6	+6	29
11	QPR	20	8	5	7	+3	29
12	Charlton	20	8	5	7	+3	29
13	Nott'm Forest	18	8	4	6	+1	28
14	Stoke	19	8	3	8	+5	27
15	Sheffield Weds	19	7	6	6	-5	27
16	Luton	19	7	5	7	+0	26
17	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	-2	26
18	Huddersfield	20	7	5	8	-3	26
19	Middlesbrough	20	6	8	6	-4	26
20	Reading	19	7	3	9	-1	24
21	Wigan	18	6	6	6	-4	24
22	Birmingham	18	6	5	7	-2	23
23	Barnsley	19	5	7	7	-7	22
24	Hull	20	6	3	11	-7	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	20	11	6	3	+13	39
2	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+11	34
3	Nott'm Forest	20	8	9	3	+9	33
4	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-2	29
5	Swansea	18	6	9	3	+2	27
6	Brentford	19	7	4	8	+9	25
7	Reading	19	6	7	6	+5	25
8	Fulham	16	6	7	3	+4	25
9	Cardiff	20	6	7	7	-5	25
10	Birmingham	20	6	7	7	-7	25
11	Millwall	19	5	8	6	-3	23
12	Sheffield Weds	19	6	4	9	+2	22
13	Blackburn	18	6	3	9	-1	21
14	Preston	19	5	6	8	-6	21
15	QPR	19	6	3	10	-9	21
16	Wigan	20	5	5	10	-6	20
17	Hull	18	5	5	8	-8	20
18	Derby	19	4	5	10	-14	17
19	Stoke	19	4	4	11	-11	16
20	Charlton	19	4	4	11	-11	16
21	Huddersfield	18	4	4	10	-12	16
22	Middlesbrough	18	3	6	9	-9	15
23	Barnsley	19	4	3	12	-12	15
24	Luton	20	4	1	15	-27	13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.