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Bundesliga

Referee: B Cortus

Leverkusen

S T U S T

1–0

Full-time

Mainz

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 44%

55%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

61%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

58%

55%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%

13 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 5. · Mainz 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	25	4	4	+64	79
2	Dortmund	33	21	6	6	+47	69
3	RB Leipzig	33	17	12	4	+43	63
4	M'gladbach	33	19	5	9	+25	62
5	Leverkusen	33	18	6	9	+16	60
6	Wolfsburg	33	13	10	10	+6	49
7	Hoffenheim	33	14	7	12	-4	49
8	Freiburg	33	12	9	12	-3	45
9	Ein Frankfurt	33	12	6	15	-2	42
10	Hertha	33	11	8	14	-10	41
11	Schalke 04	33	9	12	12	-16	39
12	Union Berlin	33	11	5	17	-20	38
13	Mainz	33	11	4	18	-20	37
14	FC Koln	33	10	6	17	-13	36
15	Augsburg	33	9	9	15	-17	36
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	33	6	12	15	-28	30
17	Werder Bremen	33	7	7	19	-32	28
18	Paderborn	33	4	8	21	-36	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	13	2	2	+38	41
2	Dortmund	16	11	3	2	+33	36
3	M'gladbach	16	11	2	3	+18	35
4	RB Leipzig	17	7	8	2	+17	29
5	Leverkusen	16	8	4	4	+9	28
6	Freiburg	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	4	5	+8	25
8	Union Berlin	16	7	3	6	+1	24
9	FC Koln	17	6	4	7	+1	22
10	Schalke 04	17	5	7	5	-7	22
11	Hoffenheim	17	7	1	9	-11	22
12	Hertha	17	6	3	8	-9	21
13	Augsburg	16	5	5	6	+0	20
14	Wolfsburg	16	4	7	5	+0	19
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	17	4	6	7	-10	18
16	Mainz	17	5	2	10	-11	17
17	Paderborn	17	2	2	13	-25	8
18	Werder Bremen	16	1	3	12	-26	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	2	2	+26	38
2	RB Leipzig	16	10	4	2	+26	34
3	Dortmund	17	10	3	4	+14	33
4	Leverkusen	17	10	2	5	+7	32
5	Wolfsburg	17	9	3	5	+6	30
6	M'gladbach	17	8	3	6	+7	27
7	Hoffenheim	16	7	6	3	+7	27
8	Werder Bremen	17	6	4	7	-6	22
9	Hertha	16	5	5	6	-1	20
10	Mainz	16	6	2	8	-9	20
11	Freiburg	17	4	7	6	-5	19
12	Schalke 04	16	4	5	7	-9	17
13	Ein Frankfurt	17	5	2	10	-10	17
14	Augsburg	17	4	4	9	-17	16
15	FC Koln	16	4	2	10	-14	14
16	Union Berlin	17	4	2	11	-21	14
17	Paderborn	16	2	6	8	-11	12
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	2	6	8	-18	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.