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Serie A

Referee: Antonio Damato

Fiorentina

S S S S U

3–4

Full-time

Lazio

U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

0,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 50%

44%

56%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

47%

78%

Both score Ø 60%

50%

69%

Average goals

2,4

3,6

Scored

1,4

2,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

38% Possession 62%

13 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 8

3 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Lazio 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	32	27	3	2	+59	84
2	Napoli	32	24	6	2	+45	78
3	Inter	33	17	12	4	+32	63
4	Lazio	32	18	7	7	+35	61
5	Roma	32	18	7	7	+24	61
6	Milan	32	15	8	9	+7	53
7	Atalanta	33	14	10	9	+16	52
8	Fiorentina	32	14	9	9	+11	51
9	Sampdoria	32	14	6	12	+1	48
10	Torino	32	11	13	8	+8	46
11	Bologna	32	11	5	16	-6	38
12	Genoa	32	10	8	14	-6	38
13	Udinese	32	10	3	19	-10	33
14	Cagliari	33	9	5	19	-26	32
15	Sassuolo	32	7	10	15	-30	31
16	Chievo	32	7	9	16	-22	30
17	Spal	32	5	13	14	-22	28
18	Crotone	32	7	6	19	-28	27
19	Verona	32	7	4	21	-38	25
20	Benevento	33	4	2	27	-50	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	14	1	1	+35	43
2	Inter	17	11	5	1	+23	38
3	Napoli	16	12	2	2	+22	38
4	Sampdoria	16	10	3	3	+14	33
5	Milan	16	8	5	3	+3	29
6	Lazio	16	8	4	4	+21	28
7	Roma	16	9	1	6	+8	28
8	Torino	16	7	5	4	+11	26
9	Atalanta	16	7	5	4	+9	26
10	Fiorentina	16	7	5	4	+4	26
11	Bologna	17	6	4	7	+1	22
12	Chievo	16	5	6	5	-3	21
13	Crotone	16	5	4	7	-5	19
14	Genoa	16	5	3	8	-4	18
15	Udinese	16	5	2	9	-2	17
16	Cagliari	16	5	2	9	-12	17
17	Spal	15	3	7	5	-8	16
18	Verona	16	5	1	10	-17	16
19	Sassuolo	16	2	7	7	-12	13
20	Benevento	17	4	1	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	13	2	1	+24	41
2	Napoli	16	12	4	0	+23	40
3	Roma	16	9	6	1	+16	33
4	Lazio	16	10	3	3	+14	33
5	Atalanta	17	7	5	5	+7	26
6	Inter	16	6	7	3	+9	25
7	Fiorentina	16	7	4	5	+7	25
8	Milan	16	7	3	6	+4	24
9	Genoa	16	5	5	6	-2	20
10	Torino	16	4	8	4	-3	20
11	Sassuolo	16	5	3	8	-18	18
12	Bologna	15	5	1	9	-7	16
13	Udinese	16	5	1	10	-8	16
14	Sampdoria	16	4	3	9	-13	15
15	Cagliari	17	4	3	10	-14	15
16	Spal	17	2	6	9	-14	12
17	Chievo	16	2	3	11	-19	9
18	Verona	16	2	3	11	-21	9
19	Crotone	16	2	2	12	-23	8
20	Benevento	16	0	1	15	-32	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.