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Ligue 1
Referee: B Bastien
Nice
S U S U U
2–1
Full-time
Lyon
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Lyon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,7
Conceded
1,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 41%
38%
43%
Points per game
1,4
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
62%
52%
Both score Ø 60%
76%
43%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,4
1,6
Conceded
1,4
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%
12 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 3
6 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 10
1 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 1
The table before the match Nice 12. · Lyon 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 22 18 1 3 +43 55
2 Marseille 21 12 6 3 +9 42
3 Rennes 22 12 4 6 +8 40
4 Lille 22 10 4 8 +1 34
5 Montpellier 22 9 6 7 +4 33
6 Lyon 21 9 5 7 +15 32
7 Reims 22 8 8 6 +6 32
8 Nantes 22 10 2 10 -1 32
9 Strasbourg 22 9 3 10 -1 30
10 Angers 22 8 6 8 -5 30
11 Bordeaux 21 8 5 8 +6 29
12 Nice 21 8 5 8 +1 29
13 Monaco 22 8 5 9 -2 29
14 Brest 22 7 7 8 -2 28
15 St Etienne 21 8 4 9 -8 28
16 Dijon 22 6 6 10 -5 24
17 Metz 21 5 8 8 -9 23
18 Amiens 22 4 7 11 -17 19
19 Nimes 22 4 6 12 -17 18
20 Toulouse 22 3 4 15 -26 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nice Lyon
22′
🟥 Fernando Marçal
1–0 K. Dolberg
33′
Adam Ounas 🟨
38′
40′
🔁 L. Tousart
↦ M. Caqueret
Alexis Claude Maurice 🟨
45′
Adam Ounas 🟥
45′
45′
🟨 Marcelo
45′
K. Toko Ekambi 1–1
Half-time 1–1
52′
🟨 Rafael
59′
🔁 K. Tete
↦ Rafael
2–1 K. Dolberg
H. Boudaoui
63′
M. Sarr 🔁
↦ K. Thuram-Ulien
70′
70′
🔁 Bertrand Traoré
↦ K. Toko Ekambi
Christophe Herelle 🟨
71′
M. Wagué 🔁
↦ C. Hérelle
76′
I. Ganago 🔁
↦ K. Dolberg
87′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Nice

4-1-4-1
40 W. Benítez G
4 Dante D
29 C. Hérelle D
2 S. N'Soki D
21 Danilo Barbosa D
8 P. Lees Melou M
10 A. Ounas M
18 A. Claude Maurice M
19 K. Thuram-Ulien M
28 H. Boudaoui M
9 K. Dolberg F
Bench (7)
23 M. Sarr
6 M. Wagué
14 I. Ganago
7 M. Maolida
16 Y. Clementia
5 R. Durmisi
22 A. Lusamba

Coach: P. Vieira

Lyon

4-3-3
30 C. Tătărușanu G
6 Marcelo D
4 Rafael D
20 Fernando Marçal D
5 J. Denayer D
12 Thiago Mendes M
8 H. Aouar M
25 M. Caqueret M
21 K. Toko Ekambi F
27 M. Cornet F
9 M. Dembélé F
Bench (7)
29 L. Tousart
23 K. Tete
10 Bertrand Traoré
22 Jean Lucas
3 J. Andersen
16 A. Racioppi
18 M. Cherki

Coach: R. Garcia

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
3,41
U
3,52
B
2,10
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,76
U2,5
2,06
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Bastien · 180 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.