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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Fiorentina

T T T T U

1–4

Full-time

Roma

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

25%

56%

Points per game

1,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 63%

69%

56%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

42% Possession 58%

7 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 14. · Roma 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	17	13	3	1	+14	42
2	Inter	16	12	3	1	+18	39
3	Lazio	16	11	3	2	+22	36
4	Roma	16	9	5	2	+13	32
5	Cagliari	16	8	5	3	+11	29
6	Atalanta	16	8	4	4	+13	28
7	Parma	16	7	3	6	+4	24
8	Napoli	16	5	6	5	+4	21
9	Torino	16	6	3	7	-3	21
10	Milan	16	6	3	7	-3	21
11	Sassuolo	16	5	4	7	+1	19
12	Bologna	16	5	4	7	-3	19
13	Verona	16	5	4	7	-3	19
14	Fiorentina	16	4	5	7	-4	17
15	Lecce	16	3	6	7	-12	15
16	Sampdoria	17	4	3	10	-13	15
17	Udinese	16	4	3	9	-16	15
18	Brescia	16	4	1	11	-14	13
19	Genoa	16	2	5	9	-14	11
20	Spal	16	2	3	11	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	8	7	1	0	+9	22
2	Lazio	8	6	2	0	+17	20
3	Roma	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Inter	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	Cagliari	9	5	1	3	+6	16
6	Parma	8	4	0	4	+3	12
7	Verona	9	3	3	3	+0	12
8	Napoli	8	3	2	3	+2	11
9	Bologna	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Torino	8	3	2	3	-2	11
11	Udinese	8	3	2	3	-4	11
12	Atalanta	7	3	1	3	+4	10
13	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	+2	10
14	Fiorentina	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Milan	8	2	3	3	-3	9
16	Sampdoria	9	2	3	4	-5	9
17	Spal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
18	Genoa	8	2	1	5	-3	7
19	Lecce	7	0	4	3	-5	4
20	Brescia	8	1	1	6	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Juventus	9	6	2	1	+5	20
3	Atalanta	9	5	3	1	+9	18
4	Lazio	8	5	1	2	+5	16
5	Roma	8	4	3	1	+6	15
6	Cagliari	7	3	4	0	+5	13
7	Parma	8	3	3	2	+1	12
8	Milan	8	4	0	4	+0	12
9	Lecce	9	3	2	4	-7	11
10	Napoli	8	2	4	2	+2	10
11	Torino	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Sassuolo	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Brescia	8	3	0	5	-5	9
14	Bologna	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Fiorentina	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Verona	7	2	1	4	-3	7
17	Sampdoria	8	2	0	6	-8	6
18	Genoa	8	0	4	4	-11	4
19	Udinese	8	1	1	6	-12	4
20	Spal	8	0	1	7	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.