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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Barcelona
U S S S S
0–2
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,8
4,3
Scored
2,8
2,3
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/12 matches
Win Ø 55%
60%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 91%
90%
92%
Both score Ø 91%
90%
92%
Average goals
4,7
4,6
Scored
3,0
2,6
Conceded
1,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,10 xG 0,44
58% Possession 42%
18 Shots 5
7 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
7 Corners 1
1 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Apr -26 Ath Madrid – Barcelona 1–2 3. Mar -26 Barcelona – Ath Madrid 3–0 12. Feb -26 Ath Madrid – Barcelona 4–0 2. Dec -25 Barcelona – Ath Madrid 3–1 2. Apr -25 Ath Madrid – Barcelona 0–1

Match report

Barcelona Ath Madrid
João Cancelo 🟨
-5′
31′
🟨 Koke
31′
🔁 M. Pubill
↦ D. Hancko
Pau Cubarsí ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
42′
Pau Cubarsí 🟥
44′
45′
⚽ J. Alvarez 0–1
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Marc Pubill
Gavi 🔁
↦ Pedri
46′
Fermín 🔁
↦ R. Lewandowski
46′
60′
🔁 A. Sorloth
↦ A. Lookman
60′
🔁 A. Baena
↦ Koke
63′
🟨 Alejandro Baena
Pablo Gavi 🟨
65′
70′
⚽ A. Sorloth 0–2
M. Ruggeri
F. Torres 🔁
↦ M. Rashford
73′
R. Araujo 🔁
↦ J. Kounde
73′
80′
🔁 N. Gonzalez
↦ A. Griezmann
80′
🔁 T. Almada
↦ G. Simeone
A. Balde 🔁
↦ J. Cancelo
86′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
13 J. Garcia G
23 J. Kounde D
5 P. Cubarsi D
18 G. Martin D
2 J. Cancelo D
24 E. Garcia M
8 Pedri M
10 Lamine Yamal M
20 D. Olmo M
14 M. Rashford M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (12)
25 W. Szczesny
31 D. Kochen
7 F. Torres
4 R. Araujo
6 Gavi
28 R. Bardghji
36 A. Cortes
3 A. Balde
17 M. Casado
16 Fermín
43 T. Marques
42 X. Espart

Coach: Hansi Flick

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
1 J. Musso G
16 N. Molina D
24 R. Le Normand D
17 D. Hancko D
3 M. Ruggeri D
20 G. Simeone M
14 M. Llorente M
6 Koke M
22 A. Lookman M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (11)
33 M. de Luis
31 S. Esquivel
9 A. Sorloth
23 N. Gonzalez
21 O. Vargas
4 R. Mendoza
15 C. Lenglet
10 A. Baena
11 T. Almada
18 M. Pubill
34 J. Diaz

Coach: Diego Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.