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Premier League

Referee: Lee Mason

Aston Villa

S S T T T

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

75%

42%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,1

2,4

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

62% Possession 38%

17 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 17. · Newcastle 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	12	1	0	+19	37
2	Leicester	13	9	2	2	+23	29
3	Man City	13	9	1	3	+23	28
4	Chelsea	13	8	2	3	+9	26
5	Wolves	13	4	7	2	+2	19
6	Sheffield United	13	4	6	3	+4	18
7	Burnley	13	5	3	5	+2	18
8	Arsenal	13	4	6	3	-1	18
9	Man United	13	4	5	4	+4	17
10	Tottenham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
11	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Brighton	13	4	3	6	-4	15
13	Newcastle	12	4	3	5	-7	15
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-7	15
15	Everton	13	4	2	7	-7	14
16	West Ham	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Aston Villa	12	3	2	7	-3	11
18	Norwich	13	3	1	9	-15	10
19	Southampton	13	2	3	8	-18	9
20	Watford	13	1	5	7	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Man City	7	5	1	1	+15	16
3	Leicester	6	5	1	0	+11	16
4	Arsenal	7	3	4	0	+3	13
5	Burnley	6	4	0	2	+4	12
6	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Man United	6	3	2	1	+6	11
8	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Sheffield United	7	3	1	3	+2	10
11	Everton	7	3	1	3	-2	10
12	Newcastle	6	2	3	1	+1	9
13	Bournemouth	7	2	3	2	+0	9
14	Wolves	6	2	3	1	+0	9
15	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	+1	8
16	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Norwich	6	2	0	4	-6	6
19	Watford	7	0	3	4	-9	3
20	Southampton	6	0	1	5	-16	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+8	19
2	Chelsea	7	5	0	2	+5	15
3	Leicester	7	4	1	2	+12	13
4	Man City	6	4	0	2	+8	12
5	Wolves	7	2	4	1	+2	10
6	Sheffield United	6	1	5	0	+2	8
7	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
8	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-5	7
10	Burnley	7	1	3	3	-2	6
11	Man United	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	West Ham	6	1	3	2	-3	6
13	Tottenham	7	1	3	3	-4	6
14	Newcastle	6	2	0	4	-8	6
15	Arsenal	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Watford	6	1	2	3	-9	5
17	Everton	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Brighton	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Norwich	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.