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La Liga

Referee: Jorge Figueroa

Celta

S U T S S

0–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 40%

30%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

50%

35%

Both score Ø 53%

55%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,12 xG 1,03

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Celta 13. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	20	17	2	1	+35	+3.5	53
2	Real Madrid	20	14	3	3	+23	+3.5	45
3	Sociedad	20	12	3	5	+9	+0.5	39
4	Ath Madrid	20	10	5	5	+12	+3.8	35
5	Betis	21	10	4	7	+5	+0.4	34
6	Vallecano	21	9	6	6	+5	+0.1	33
7	Ath Bilbao	21	9	5	7	+9	-0.5	32
8	Villarreal	20	9	4	7	+5	+0.6	31
9	Osasuna	20	8	5	7	+0	-2.8	29
10	Mallorca	21	8	4	9	-4	-4.1	28
11	Girona	21	6	6	9	-4	-1.5	24
12	Sevilla	21	6	6	9	-6	+3.5	24
13	Celta	20	6	5	9	-10	-1.2	23
14	Valladolid	20	7	2	11	-13	-3.3	23
15	Almeria	21	6	4	11	-9	+0.7	22
16	Cadiz	21	5	7	9	-16	+0.1	22
17	Espanol	20	4	9	7	-6	+0.8	21
18	Valencia	21	5	5	11	+0	-2.8	20
19	Getafe	21	4	7	10	-10	-1.1	19
20	Elche	20	1	6	13	-25	-0.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	8	2	0	+21	+2.2	26
2	Real Madrid	9	6	3	0	+11	+2.9	21
3	Ath Bilbao	11	6	2	3	+9	+0.4	20
4	Villarreal	9	6	1	2	+7	+2.1	19
5	Almeria	11	6	1	4	+4	+1.0	19
6	Osasuna	10	6	0	4	+3	-1.4	18
7	Girona	11	5	3	3	+2	+1.4	18
8	Betis	10	5	2	3	+5	+0.3	17
9	Vallecano	10	5	2	3	+4	-0.9	17
10	Mallorca	10	5	2	3	+2	-0.7	17
11	Sociedad	10	5	2	3	+1	+0.5	17
12	Valladolid	10	5	1	4	+0	+0.1	16
13	Ath Madrid	10	4	3	3	+5	+2.4	15
14	Sevilla	11	4	3	4	+0	+6.1	15
15	Valencia	11	4	2	5	+6	+0.9	14
16	Cadiz	11	3	5	3	-4	+2.0	14
17	Celta	10	3	4	3	+0	+0.4	13
18	Espanol	10	2	4	4	-4	+2.1	10
19	Getafe	11	2	4	5	-4	-2.0	10
20	Elche	10	1	3	6	-8	+2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	+14	+1.3	27
2	Real Madrid	11	8	0	3	+12	+0.6	24
3	Sociedad	10	7	1	2	+8	-0.0	22
4	Ath Madrid	10	6	2	2	+7	+1.4	20
5	Betis	11	5	2	4	+0	+0.1	17
6	Vallecano	11	4	4	3	+1	+1.0	16
7	Ath Bilbao	10	3	3	4	+0	-0.8	12
8	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	-2	-1.5	12
9	Espanol	10	2	5	3	-2	-1.3	11
10	Osasuna	10	2	5	3	-3	-1.5	11
11	Mallorca	11	3	2	6	-6	-3.4	11
12	Celta	10	3	1	6	-10	-1.6	10
13	Sevilla	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.5	9
14	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.8	9
15	Cadiz	10	2	2	6	-12	-1.9	8
16	Valladolid	10	2	1	7	-13	-3.4	7
17	Girona	10	1	3	6	-6	-2.8	6
18	Valencia	10	1	3	6	-6	-3.6	6
19	Almeria	10	0	3	7	-13	-0.3	3
20	Elche	10	0	3	7	-17	-2.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.