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Champions League
Referee: S Vinčić
Dortmund
S S T T S
4–2
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
0,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 56%
44%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
22%
67%
Both score Ø 56%
44%
67%
Average goals
2,0
3,3
Scored
1,2
2,3
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,48 xG 1,89
52% Possession 48%
19 Shots 10
9 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 2
1 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Apr -24 Ath Madrid – Dortmund 2–1

Match report

Dortmund Ath Madrid
30′
🟨 César Azpilicueta
1–0 J. Brandt ⚽
M. Hummels
34′
2–0 I. Maatsen ⚽
M. Sabitzer
39′
Julian Ryerson 🟨
43′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🟨 Mario Hermoso
46′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ Álvaro Morata
46′
🔁 Rodrigo Riquelme
↦ César Azpilicueta
46′
🔁 Pablo Barrios
↦ N. Molina
49′
⚽ M. Hummels 3–0
own goal
64′
⚽ Á. Correa 3–1
J. Bynoe-Gittens 🔁
↦ K. Adeyemi
66′
4–1 N. Füllkrug ⚽
M. Sabitzer
71′
5–1 M. Sabitzer ⚽
N. Füllkrug
74′
84′
🔁 Saúl
↦ R. De Paul
S. Özcan 🔁
↦ J. Sancho
86′
M. Reus 🔁
↦ J. Brandt
90′
Full-time 5–1

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
26 J. Ryerson D
15 M. Hummels D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
22 I. Maatsen D
20 M. Sabitzer M
23 E. Can M
10 J. Sancho M
19 J. Brandt M
27 K. Adeyemi M
14 N. Füllkrug F
Bench (11)
43 J. Bynoe-Gittens
6 S. Özcan
11 M. Reus
18 Y. Moukoko
17 M. Wolf
38 K. Wätjen
8 F. Nmecha
35 M. Lotka
16 J. Duranville
33 A. Meyer
25 N. Süle

Coach: E. Terzić

Ath Madrid

3-5-2
13 J. Oblak G
20 A. Witsel D
2 J. Giménez D
22 Hermoso D
16 N. Molina M
14 Marcos Llorente M
6 Koke M
5 R. De Paul M
3 César Azpilicueta M
19 Álvaro Morata F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (11)
10 Á. Correa
17 Rodrigo Riquelme
24 Pablo Barrios
8 Saúl
18 A. Vermeeren
15 S. Savić
1 H. Moldovan
4 Gabriel Paulista
23 Reinildo
31 Antonio Gomis
32 Adrián Niño

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Vinčić · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.