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La Liga
Referee: Pablo González Fuertes
Almeria
U U T U S
0–3
Full-time
Osasuna
S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Osasuna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,0
2,3
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 19%
3%
34%
Points per game
0,4
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
62%
38%
Both score Ø 55%
62%
48%
Average goals
2,9
2,6
Scored
1,0
1,1
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,84 xG 1,03
51% Possession 49%
12 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 1
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Almeria 20. · Osasuna 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Real Madrid 29 22 6 1 +44 +29.3 72
2 Barcelona 29 19 7 3 +26 +33.8 64
3 Girona 29 19 5 5 +25 +10.6 62
4 Ath Bilbao 29 16 8 5 +24 +15.3 56
5 Ath Madrid 29 17 4 8 +20 +18.6 55
6 Sociedad 29 12 10 7 +11 +5.7 46
7 Betis 29 10 12 7 +1 -3.9 42
8 Valencia 28 11 7 10 +0 -4.0 40
9 Villarreal 29 10 8 11 -4 -2.6 38
10 Getafe 30 9 11 10 -6 -6.5 38
11 Las Palmas 29 10 7 12 -3 -15.9 37
12 Osasuna 29 10 6 13 -10 -8.1 36
13 Alaves 29 8 8 13 -9 +1.2 32
14 Sevilla 30 7 10 13 -7 -11.4 31
15 Mallorca 29 6 12 11 -10 -4.8 30
16 Vallecano 29 6 11 12 -13 -4.5 29
17 Celta 29 6 9 14 -12 -8.0 27
18 Cadiz 30 4 13 13 -19 -14.4 25
19 Granada 29 2 8 19 -29 -17.4 14
20 Almeria 29 1 10 18 -29 -12.7 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Almeria Osasuna
2′
José Manuel Arnáiz 0–1
Jesús Areso
9′
Ante Budimir 0–2
Jon Moncayola
Marcos Pena 🔁
↦ Aleksandar Radovanović
22′
37′
🟨 José Manuel Arnáiz
44′
🟨 Jesús Areso
Half-time 0–2
Adrián Embarba 🔁
↦ Sergio Arribas
46′
Léo Baptistão 🔁
↦ Marko Milovanović
46′
Lucas Robertone 🟨
51′
Léo Baptistão 🟨
51′
56′
🔁 Aimar Oroz
↦ José Manuel Arnáiz
61′
Iker Muñoz 0–3
Alejandro Catena
Luka Romero 🔁
↦ Jonathan Viera
63′
66′
🔁 Rubén Peña
↦ Rubén García
Dion Lopy 🔁
↦ Lucas Robertone
77′
77′
🔁 Johan Mojica
↦ Juan Cruz
77′
🔁 Raúl García
↦ Ante Budimir
77′
🔁 Pablo Ibáñez Lumbreras
↦ Jon Moncayola
Marcos Pena 🟨
79′
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Almeria

4-3-3
25 Luís Maximiano G
18 Marc Pubill D
22 César Montes D
16 Aleksandar Radovanović D
20 Álex Centelles D
8 Jonathan Viera M
3 Edgar González M
5 Lucas Robertone M
7 Largie Ramazani F
29 Marko Milovanović F
19 Sergio Arribas F
Bench (11)
26 Marcos Pena
10 Adrián Embarba
12 Léo Baptistão
38 Luka Romero
6 Dion Lopy
13 Fernando Martínez
1 Diego Mariño
17 Alejandro Pozo
24 Bruno Langa
21 Chumi
4 Iddrisu Baba

Coach: Pepe Mel

Osasuna

4-4-2
1 Sergio Herrera G
12 Jesús Areso D
24 Alejandro Catena D
28 Jorge Herrando D
3 Juan Cruz D
14 Rubén García M
7 Jon Moncayola M
34 Iker Muñoz M
16 Moi Gómez M
17 Ante Budimir F
20 José Manuel Arnáiz F
Bench (8)
10 Aimar Oroz
15 Rubén Peña
22 Johan Mojica
19 Pablo Ibáñez Lumbreras
23 Raúl García
31 Pablo Valencia
13 Aitor Fernández
5 David García

Coach: Arrasate

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,62
U
3,25
B ✓
2,83
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,12
U2,5
1,75
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Pablo González Fuertes · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.