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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Fiorentina

S U S U U

1–2

Full-time

Milan

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/29 matches

Win Ø 55%

43%

66%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

46%

59%

Both score Ø 51%

46%

55%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,9

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,38 xG 3,10

45% Possession 55%

17 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 10

8 Blocked shots 0

8 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 10. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	29	24	4	1	+57	+37.9	76
2	Milan	29	19	5	5	+22	+11.4	62
3	Juventus	30	17	8	5	+20	+23.4	59
4	Bologna	29	15	9	5	+17	+8.4	54
5	Roma	29	15	6	8	+20	+11.6	51
6	Atalanta	29	15	5	9	+22	+9.8	50
7	Lazio	30	14	4	12	+4	+2.8	46
8	Napoli	30	12	9	9	+8	+18.5	45
9	Torino	30	11	11	8	+3	+3.7	44
10	Fiorentina	28	12	7	9	+9	+2.5	43
11	Monza	30	11	9	10	-5	-10.2	42
12	Genoa	30	8	11	11	-5	-5.0	35
13	Lecce	29	6	10	13	-19	-12.9	28
14	Udinese	29	4	15	10	-16	-8.1	27
15	Verona	29	6	8	15	-13	-12.1	26
16	Cagliari	29	6	8	15	-21	-10.1	26
17	Empoli	29	6	7	16	-21	-9.6	25
18	Frosinone	30	6	7	17	-23	-13.9	25
19	Sassuolo	29	6	5	18	-23	-14.9	23
20	Salernitana	29	2	8	19	-36	-33.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	12	2	1	+29	+23.8	38
2	Bologna	15	11	2	2	+18	+6.4	35
3	Roma	15	10	3	2	+19	+10.4	33
4	Milan	14	10	2	2	+15	+7.3	32
5	Juventus	15	9	5	1	+12	+15.2	32
6	Atalanta	14	10	1	3	+21	+12.1	31
7	Fiorentina	14	8	3	3	+11	+7.8	27
8	Torino	15	7	6	2	+7	+8.4	27
9	Lazio	15	7	3	5	+3	+6.8	24
10	Monza	15	6	5	4	+1	-3.4	23
11	Napoli	15	6	4	5	-1	+11.1	22
12	Genoa	15	5	6	4	+0	-0.8	21
13	Frosinone	15	6	3	6	-1	-1.9	21
14	Cagliari	14	5	4	5	-4	+4.9	19
15	Lecce	14	5	4	5	-7	-2.5	19
16	Verona	14	4	5	5	-3	-4.3	17
17	Sassuolo	14	4	3	7	-7	-5.1	15
18	Udinese	15	1	9	5	-6	+2.0	12
19	Empoli	15	2	4	9	-11	-4.1	10
20	Salernitana	15	1	4	10	-17	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	12	2	0	+28	+14.1	38
2	Milan	15	9	3	3	+7	+4.1	30
3	Juventus	15	8	3	4	+8	+8.1	27
4	Napoli	15	6	5	4	+9	+7.4	23
5	Lazio	15	7	1	7	+1	-4.0	22
6	Atalanta	15	5	4	6	+1	-2.3	19
7	Bologna	14	4	7	3	-1	+2.0	19
8	Monza	15	5	4	6	-6	-6.8	19
9	Roma	14	5	3	6	+1	+1.2	18
10	Torino	15	4	5	6	-4	-4.7	17
11	Fiorentina	14	4	4	6	-2	-5.3	16
12	Empoli	14	4	3	7	-10	-5.5	15
13	Udinese	14	3	6	5	-10	-10.1	15
14	Genoa	15	3	5	7	-5	-4.2	14
15	Verona	15	2	3	10	-10	-7.8	9
16	Lecce	15	1	6	8	-12	-10.5	9
17	Sassuolo	15	2	2	11	-16	-9.8	8
18	Cagliari	15	1	4	10	-17	-14.9	7
19	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-19	-21.9	7
20	Frosinone	15	0	4	11	-22	-12.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.