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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Estoril

T U T T S

1–0

Full-time

Porto

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

2,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 48%

27%

69%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

69%

50%

Both score Ø 56%

65%

46%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,9

Conceded

1,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,18 xG 1,18

26% Possession 74%

5 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 14

5 Yellow cards 8

1 Red cards 3

The table before the match Estoril 15. · Porto 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	26	22	2	2	+51	+35.8	68
2	Benfica	27	21	4	2	+40	+33.3	67
3	Porto	26	18	4	4	+32	+24.8	58
4	Sp Braga	26	16	5	5	+21	+16.4	53
5	Guimaraes	27	16	5	6	+15	+8.1	53
6	Moreirense	27	12	6	9	+0	+0.4	42
7	Arouca	27	11	4	12	+7	-1.8	37
8	Famalicao	26	7	10	9	-5	-7.1	31
9	Boavista	27	7	8	12	-18	-14.2	29
10	Gil Vicente	27	7	7	13	-5	-7.0	28
11	Farense	27	7	6	14	-5	-9.1	27
12	Casa Pia	26	7	6	13	-16	-10.7	27
13	Rio Ave	27	4	14	9	-9	+0.8	26
14	Estrela	27	6	8	13	-14	-9.4	26
15	Estoril	26	7	4	15	-7	-10.2	25
16	Portimonense	26	6	5	15	-29	-18.4	23
17	Vizela	26	4	9	13	-26	-11.8	21
18	Chaves	27	4	7	16	-32	-19.9	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	13	0	0	+36	+23.8	39
2	Benfica	14	12	2	0	+31	+25.0	38
3	Porto	13	10	2	1	+22	+20.1	32
4	Guimaraes	14	10	1	3	+13	+10.9	31
5	Sp Braga	13	8	3	2	+15	+18.1	27
6	Gil Vicente	14	5	6	3	+8	-4.1	21
7	Moreirense	13	6	3	4	+1	+1.1	21
8	Arouca	14	6	2	6	+1	-2.1	20
9	Estoril	13	6	1	6	+7	+1.3	19
10	Rio Ave	13	4	6	3	+1	+5.1	18
11	Famalicao	12	4	5	3	-1	-1.1	17
12	Estrela	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.2	17
13	Boavista	14	4	5	5	-9	-3.6	17
14	Farense	13	4	4	5	+2	+0.4	16
15	Portimonense	13	3	4	6	-9	-6.6	13
16	Chaves	13	3	3	7	-11	-4.6	12
17	Casa Pia	13	2	4	7	-8	-3.1	10
18	Vizela	13	2	4	7	-11	-1.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	9	2	2	+15	+12.0	29
2	Benfica	13	9	2	2	+9	+8.3	29
3	Porto	13	8	2	3	+10	+4.6	26
4	Sp Braga	13	8	2	3	+6	-1.6	26
5	Guimaraes	13	6	4	3	+2	-2.8	22
6	Moreirense	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.8	21
7	Arouca	13	5	2	6	+6	+0.3	17
8	Casa Pia	13	5	2	6	-8	-7.7	17
9	Famalicao	14	3	5	6	-4	-6.0	14
10	Boavista	13	3	3	7	-9	-10.7	12
11	Farense	14	3	2	9	-7	-9.5	11
12	Vizela	13	2	5	6	-15	-10.6	11
13	Portimonense	13	3	1	9	-20	-11.8	10
14	Estrela	13	1	6	6	-11	-6.2	9
15	Rio Ave	14	0	8	6	-10	-4.3	8
16	Gil Vicente	13	2	1	10	-13	-2.9	7
17	Chaves	14	1	4	9	-21	-15.2	7
18	Estoril	13	1	3	9	-14	-11.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.