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La Liga

Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Celta

T S T T U

1–0

Full-time

Almeria

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Almeria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 8%

15%

Points per game

0,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

46%

65%

Both score Ø 62%

58%

65%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,41 xG 0,11

67% Possession 33%

15 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 0

6 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 0

2 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Celta 17. · Almeria 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	26	20	5	1	+38	+23.3	65
2	Girona	26	18	5	3	+25	+8.6	59
3	Barcelona	26	17	6	3	+22	+31.2	57
4	Ath Madrid	26	16	4	6	+24	+17.1	52
5	Ath Bilbao	26	14	7	5	+20	+15.7	49
6	Betis	26	10	12	4	+5	-1.1	42
7	Sociedad	26	10	10	6	+9	+4.6	40
8	Valencia	25	10	6	9	+0	-1.6	36
9	Las Palmas	26	10	6	10	+0	-15.8	36
10	Getafe	26	8	10	8	-5	-8.1	34
11	Osasuna	26	9	6	11	-7	-4.3	33
12	Alaves	26	7	8	11	-7	+1.6	29
13	Villarreal	26	7	8	11	-10	-5.5	29
14	Vallecano	26	5	10	11	-14	-3.7	25
15	Sevilla	26	5	9	12	-8	-11.9	24
16	Mallorca	26	4	12	10	-11	-4.8	24
17	Celta	26	4	9	13	-10	-6.3	21
18	Cadiz	26	2	12	12	-20	-15.2	18
19	Granada	25	2	8	15	-22	-13.2	14
20	Almeria	26	0	9	17	-29	-10.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	12	1	0	+20	+15.9	37
2	Real Madrid	13	11	2	0	+24	+18.5	35
3	Ath Bilbao	13	10	2	1	+20	+15.7	32
4	Girona	13	10	2	1	+19	+7.6	32
5	Barcelona	14	10	1	3	+13	+16.6	31
6	Betis	14	7	6	1	+9	+7.4	27
7	Valencia	12	7	3	2	+9	+4.7	24
8	Getafe	12	7	3	2	+4	-0.9	24
9	Las Palmas	13	6	4	3	+7	-4.8	22
10	Sociedad	13	5	5	3	+4	+2.6	20
11	Alaves	13	5	3	5	-2	+5.7	18
12	Osasuna	13	5	3	5	-3	+1.4	18
13	Mallorca	13	3	7	3	+0	-1.1	16
14	Sevilla	13	3	5	5	-2	-3.5	14
15	Villarreal	13	3	4	6	-4	+3.3	13
16	Cadiz	13	2	7	4	-6	+2.8	13
17	Granada	13	2	6	5	-6	-3.2	12
18	Celta	13	2	4	7	-8	+3.3	10
19	Vallecano	12	1	6	5	-10	-2.1	9
20	Almeria	13	0	7	6	-11	+0.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	9	3	1	+14	+4.9	30
2	Girona	13	8	3	2	+6	+1.0	27
3	Barcelona	12	7	5	0	+9	+14.6	26
4	Sociedad	13	5	5	3	+5	+2.0	20
5	Ath Bilbao	13	4	5	4	+0	-0.0	17
6	Vallecano	14	4	4	6	-4	-1.6	16
7	Villarreal	13	4	4	5	-6	-8.7	16
8	Ath Madrid	13	4	3	6	+4	+1.2	15
9	Osasuna	13	4	3	6	-4	-5.7	15
10	Betis	12	3	6	3	-4	-8.5	15
11	Las Palmas	13	4	2	7	-7	-11.0	14
12	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-9	-6.3	12
13	Celta	13	2	5	6	-2	-9.6	11
14	Alaves	13	2	5	6	-5	-4.2	11
15	Sevilla	13	2	4	7	-6	-8.4	10
16	Getafe	14	1	7	6	-9	-7.2	10
17	Mallorca	13	1	5	7	-11	-3.7	8
18	Cadiz	13	0	5	8	-14	-18.1	5
19	Granada	12	0	2	10	-16	-10.0	2
20	Almeria	13	0	2	11	-18	-10.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.