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La Liga

Referee: David Medié

Villarreal

U U U U S

1–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — La Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 40%

43%

36%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 54%

64%

43%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

17 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 4. · Ath Bilbao 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	10	2	1	+21	32
2	Real Madrid	14	9	2	3	+11	29
3	Sociedad	16	7	5	4	+13	26
4	Villarreal	14	6	7	1	+6	25
5	Sevilla	13	7	2	4	+5	23
6	Barcelona	13	6	3	4	+11	21
7	Granada	13	6	3	4	-3	21
8	Celta	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Cadiz	14	5	3	6	-8	18
10	Ath Bilbao	14	5	2	7	+0	17
11	Getafe	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	Betis	14	5	1	8	-11	16
13	Valencia	15	3	6	6	-1	15
14	Levante	14	3	6	5	-2	15
15	Eibar	14	3	6	5	-3	15
16	Elche	13	3	6	4	-4	15
17	Alaves	14	3	5	6	-5	14
18	Valladolid	14	3	5	6	-6	14
19	Huesca	15	1	9	5	-10	12
20	Osasuna	14	3	3	8	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	7	6	1	0	+16	19
2	Barcelona	8	5	2	1	+11	17
3	Villarreal	7	4	3	0	+6	15
4	Granada	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Real Madrid	6	4	0	2	+6	12
6	Ath Bilbao	6	4	0	2	+6	12
7	Sociedad	8	3	3	2	+5	12
8	Celta	7	4	0	3	+1	12
9	Sevilla	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Getafe	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Levante	6	2	3	1	+2	9
12	Valencia	8	2	3	3	+1	9
13	Valladolid	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Betis	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Huesca	7	1	4	2	-2	7
16	Alaves	7	1	4	2	-2	7
17	Elche	7	1	4	2	-3	7
18	Osasuna	7	2	1	4	-5	7
19	Cadiz	7	1	2	4	-6	5
20	Eibar	8	0	4	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	5	2	1	+5	17
2	Sociedad	8	4	2	2	+8	14
3	Ath Madrid	6	4	1	1	+5	13
4	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+3	13
5	Cadiz	7	4	1	2	-2	13
6	Eibar	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Villarreal	7	2	4	1	+0	10
8	Betis	8	3	0	5	-9	9
9	Elche	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Celta	7	1	4	2	-2	7
11	Alaves	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Granada	6	2	1	3	-7	7
13	Valencia	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	Levante	8	1	3	4	-4	6
15	Getafe	6	1	3	2	-4	6
16	Osasuna	7	1	2	4	-5	5
17	Valladolid	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Ath Bilbao	8	1	2	5	-6	5
19	Huesca	8	0	5	3	-8	5
20	Barcelona	5	1	1	3	+0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.