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La Liga

Referee: Jorge Figueroa

Real Madrid

S S U T U

3–1

Full-time

Espanol

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Espanol

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

25%

Points per game

2,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 65%

58%

71%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,71 xG 1,17

71% Possession 29%

22 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Espanol 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	24	20	2	2	+38	+5.9	62
2	Real Madrid	24	16	5	3	+29	+10.1	53
3	Ath Madrid	24	13	6	5	+19	+4.4	45
4	Sociedad	24	13	5	6	+9	+1.3	44
5	Betis	24	12	5	7	+7	+4.2	41
6	Villarreal	24	11	4	9	+5	+1.7	37
7	Vallecano	24	9	8	7	+4	+0.6	35
8	Osasuna	24	9	7	8	-1	-5.9	34
9	Ath Bilbao	24	9	6	9	+7	-0.2	33
10	Mallorca	24	9	4	11	-4	-3.8	31
11	Girona	24	8	6	10	+0	-1.3	30
12	Celta	24	7	7	10	-8	+0.7	28
13	Espanol	24	6	9	9	-6	+0.4	27
14	Valladolid	24	8	3	13	-16	-4.7	27
15	Cadiz	25	6	9	10	-17	-2.1	27
16	Getafe	25	6	8	11	-9	-0.5	26
17	Sevilla	24	6	7	11	-12	+2.0	25
18	Almeria	24	7	4	13	-14	-2.2	25
19	Valencia	24	6	5	13	-1	-4.1	23
20	Elche	24	2	6	16	-30	-6.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	10	2	0	+24	+4.1	32
2	Real Madrid	11	7	4	0	+15	+7.9	25
3	Villarreal	11	7	1	3	+7	+2.7	22
4	Almeria	13	7	1	5	+3	-0.7	22
5	Ath Madrid	12	6	3	3	+11	+4.5	21
6	Girona	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.5	21
7	Betis	12	6	3	3	+6	+0.9	21
8	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+8	+0.7	20
9	Mallorca	12	6	2	4	+3	+0.3	20
10	Valladolid	12	6	2	4	+1	+1.3	20
11	Vallecano	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.3	19
12	Sociedad	12	5	4	3	+1	+0.9	19
13	Osasuna	12	6	1	5	+1	-2.5	19
14	Cadiz	13	4	6	3	-3	+1.2	18
15	Valencia	12	5	2	5	+7	+0.6	17
16	Celta	12	4	4	4	+2	+1.7	16
17	Getafe	13	4	4	5	-2	-1.2	16
18	Sevilla	12	4	3	5	-1	+7.1	15
19	Espanol	12	3	4	5	-4	+2.5	13
20	Elche	12	1	3	8	-10	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	10	0	2	+14	+1.8	30
2	Real Madrid	13	9	1	3	+14	+2.2	28
3	Sociedad	12	8	1	3	+8	+0.4	25
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.0	24
5	Betis	12	6	2	4	+1	+3.3	20
6	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	+0.9	16
7	Villarreal	13	4	3	6	-2	-1.0	15
8	Osasuna	12	3	6	3	-2	-3.4	15
9	Espanol	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.1	14
10	Ath Bilbao	12	3	4	5	-1	-0.9	13
11	Celta	12	3	3	6	-10	-1.1	12
12	Mallorca	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.1	11
13	Getafe	12	2	4	6	-7	+0.8	10
14	Sevilla	12	2	4	6	-11	-5.1	10
15	Girona	12	2	3	7	-6	-3.9	9
16	Cadiz	12	2	3	7	-14	-3.2	9
17	Valladolid	12	2	1	9	-17	-6.0	7
18	Valencia	12	1	3	8	-8	-4.7	6
19	Elche	12	1	3	8	-20	-6.1	6
20	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-1.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.