Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Wolves
Chelsea
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
29 | 23 | 3 | 3 | +43 | +12.6 | 72 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | +45 | +14.7 | 64 |
| 3 |
Man United
|
29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | +7 | +0.4 | 56 |
| 4 |
Newcastle
|
28 | 14 | 11 | 3 | +26 | +8.3 | 53 |
| 5 |
Tottenham
|
29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | +12 | +1.1 | 50 |
| 6 |
Brighton
|
27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +17 | +12.6 | 46 |
| 7 |
Aston Villa
|
29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | -1 | -3.7 | 44 |
| 8 |
Liverpool
|
28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | +15 | +1.8 | 43 |
| 9 |
Brentford
|
29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | +8 | +0.7 | 43 |
| 10 |
Fulham
|
28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | +0 | -5.9 | 39 |
| 11 |
Chelsea
|
29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | -1 | +5.0 | 39 |
| 12 |
Crystal Palace
|
29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | -15 | -5.5 | 30 |
| 13 |
Leeds
|
29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | -11 | -4.3 | 29 |
| 14 |
Wolves
|
29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -19 | -4.5 | 28 |
| 15 |
West Ham
|
28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -13 | -0.8 | 27 |
| 16 |
Everton
|
30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -20 | -8.0 | 27 |
| 17 |
Nott'm Forest
|
29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -28 | -8.3 | 27 |
| 18 |
Bournemouth
|
29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -30 | -6.2 | 27 |
| 19 |
Leicester
|
29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -11 | -4.0 | 25 |
| 20 |
Southampton
|
29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | -24 | -6.0 | 23 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
José Sá
G
Nélson Semedo
D
M. Kilman
D
Toti
D
Matheus Nunes
M
João Gomes
M
M. Lemina
M
Matheus Cunha
F
Coach: Lopetegui
Kepa
G
R. James
D
W. Fofana
D
Marc Cucurella
D
C. Gallagher
M
E. Fernández
M
M. Kovačić
M
K. Havertz
F
Coach: F. Lampard
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Nott'm Forest
Wolves
Wolves
Leeds
Newcastle
Wolves
Wolves
Tottenham
Liverpool
Wolves
P Bankes · 156 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.