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Premier League
Referee: P Bankes
Wolves
T S T T U
1–0
Full-time
Chelsea
S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolves Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 29%
24%
34%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
41%
38%
Both score Ø 41%
41%
41%
Average goals
2,2
2,0
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,55 xG 1,13
38% Possession 62%
9 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 8
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 8
2 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Wolves 14. · Chelsea 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Arsenal 29 23 3 3 +43 +12.6 72
2 Man City 28 20 4 4 +45 +14.7 64
3 Man United 29 17 5 7 +7 +0.4 56
4 Newcastle 28 14 11 3 +26 +8.3 53
5 Tottenham 29 15 5 9 +12 +1.1 50
6 Brighton 27 13 7 7 +17 +12.6 46
7 Aston Villa 29 13 5 11 -1 -3.7 44
8 Liverpool 28 12 7 9 +15 +1.8 43
9 Brentford 29 10 13 6 +8 +0.7 43
10 Fulham 28 11 6 11 +0 -5.9 39
11 Chelsea 29 10 9 10 -1 +5.0 39
12 Crystal Palace 29 7 9 13 -15 -5.5 30
13 Leeds 29 7 8 14 -11 -4.3 29
14 Wolves 29 7 7 15 -19 -4.5 28
15 West Ham 28 7 6 15 -13 -0.8 27
16 Everton 30 6 9 15 -20 -8.0 27
17 Nott'm Forest 29 6 9 14 -28 -8.3 27
18 Bournemouth 29 7 6 16 -30 -6.2 27
19 Leicester 29 7 4 18 -11 -4.0 25
20 Southampton 29 6 5 18 -24 -6.0 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Wolves Chelsea
1–0 Matheus Nunes
31′
Mario Lemina 🟨
39′
Half-time 1–0
49′
🟨 Marc Cucurella
João Gomes 🟨
59′
61′
🔁 C. Pulišić
↦ K. Havertz
63′
🟨 Raheem Sterling
Hwang Hee-Chan 🔁
↦ Diego Costa
63′
João Moutinho 🔁
↦ Daniel Podence
64′
67′
🟨 Conor Gallagher
68′
🔁 P. Aubameyang
↦ João Félix
68′
🔁 M. Mudryk
↦ R. Sterling
68′
🔁 B. Chilwell
↦ Marc Cucurella
Adama Traoré 🔁
↦ M. Lemina
74′
Pablo Sarabia 🔁
↦ Matheus Cunha
75′
80′
🔁 T. Chalobah
↦ W. Fofana
87′
🟨 Mateo Kovačić
89′
🟨 Ben Chilwell
N. Collins 🔁
↦ Matheus Nunes
96′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Wolves

4-4-2
1 José Sá G
22 Nélson Semedo D
15 C. Dawson D
23 M. Kilman D
24 Toti D
27 Matheus Nunes M
35 João Gomes M
5 M. Lemina M
10 Daniel Podence M
12 Matheus Cunha F
29 Diego Costa F
Bench (9)
11 Hwang Hee-Chan
28 João Moutinho
37 Adama Traoré
21 Pablo Sarabia
4 N. Collins
7 Pedro Neto
59 J. Hodge
25 D. Bentley
64 Hugo Bueno

Coach: Lopetegui

Chelsea

4-3-3
1 Kepa G
24 R. James D
33 W. Fofana D
26 K. Koulibaly D
32 Marc Cucurella D
23 C. Gallagher M
5 E. Fernández M
8 M. Kovačić M
17 R. Sterling F
29 K. Havertz F
11 João Félix F
Bench (9)
10 C. Pulišić
9 P. Aubameyang
15 M. Mudryk
21 B. Chilwell
14 T. Chalobah
12 R. Loftus-Cheek
20 D. Zakaria
16 É. Mendy
4 B. Badiashile

Coach: F. Lampard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,14
U
3,47
B
1,95
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,16
U2,5 ✓
1,70
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

P Bankes · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.