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Serie A

Referee: F Dionisi

Fiorentina

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Spezia

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

0,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 28/27 matches

Win Ø 29%

39%

19%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

39%

52%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

48%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,00 xG 0,70

66% Possession 34%

19 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 29

0 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Spezia 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	29	24	2	3	+45	+8.2	74
2	Juventus	28	18	5	5	+24	+6.0	59
3	Lazio	28	16	7	5	+25	+1.6	55
4	Milan	29	15	7	7	+12	+3.0	52
5	Inter	29	16	3	10	+15	+13.1	51
6	Roma	28	15	5	8	+12	+3.9	50
7	Atalanta	28	14	6	8	+15	+4.4	48
8	Fiorentina	28	11	7	10	+2	+2.8	40
9	Bologna	28	11	7	10	+0	-1.4	40
10	Udinese	29	9	12	8	+3	-0.8	39
11	Torino	28	10	8	10	-4	+1.2	38
12	Sassuolo	28	10	7	11	-5	+2.3	37
13	Monza	29	9	8	12	-7	-0.9	35
14	Empoli	29	7	11	11	-11	-6.6	32
15	Salernitana	29	6	11	12	-16	-8.2	29
16	Lecce	29	6	9	14	-10	-2.9	27
17	Spezia	27	5	9	13	-20	-6.7	24
18	Verona	27	4	6	17	-20	-3.2	18
19	Sampdoria	28	3	6	19	-31	-8.2	15
20	Cremonese	28	1	10	17	-29	-7.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	15	11	3	1	+22	+5.2	36
2	Napoli	14	11	1	2	+20	+2.7	34
3	Inter	15	11	0	4	+19	+5.9	33
4	Milan	14	9	3	2	+11	+4.9	30
5	Roma	14	9	1	4	+11	+0.5	28
6	Lazio	14	8	3	3	+11	+0.9	27
7	Bologna	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.1	26
8	Fiorentina	14	6	4	4	+0	+4.1	22
9	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+8	+5.4	21
10	Sassuolo	14	6	3	5	+2	+0.4	21
11	Udinese	14	4	8	2	+7	+3.2	20
12	Monza	15	5	4	6	+1	+1.0	19
13	Torino	13	5	4	4	-1	+2.2	19
14	Empoli	14	5	4	5	-2	-1.3	19
15	Salernitana	15	4	5	6	-1	-5.4	17
16	Spezia	14	3	7	4	-5	-4.3	16
17	Verona	14	4	2	8	-7	-0.5	14
18	Lecce	14	2	6	6	-5	-0.6	12
19	Sampdoria	14	1	4	9	-13	-0.3	7
20	Cremonese	14	1	3	10	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	15	13	1	1	+25	+5.6	40
2	Lazio	14	8	4	2	+14	+0.6	28
3	Atalanta	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
4	Juventus	13	7	2	4	+2	+0.8	23
5	Milan	15	6	4	5	+1	-1.9	22
6	Roma	14	6	4	4	+1	+3.4	22
7	Torino	15	5	4	6	-3	-1.0	19
8	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-4	-4.0	19
9	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+2	-1.3	18
10	Inter	14	5	3	6	-4	+7.2	18
11	Sassuolo	14	4	4	6	-7	+1.9	16
12	Monza	14	4	4	6	-8	-2.0	16
13	Lecce	15	4	3	8	-5	-2.2	15
14	Bologna	13	4	2	7	-10	-2.4	14
15	Empoli	15	2	7	6	-9	-5.3	13
16	Salernitana	14	2	6	6	-15	-2.8	12
17	Spezia	13	2	2	9	-15	-2.4	8
18	Sampdoria	14	2	2	10	-18	-7.9	8
19	Cremonese	14	0	7	7	-12	-3.7	7
20	Verona	13	0	4	9	-13	-2.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.