La Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Valladolid
Elche
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Real Madrid
|
12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | +19 | 32 |
| 2 |
Barcelona
|
12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | +25 | 31 |
| 3 |
Ath Madrid
|
12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |
Betis
|
12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |
Sociedad
|
12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 22 |
| 6 |
Ath Bilbao
|
13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +7 | 21 |
| 7 |
Osasuna
|
12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 |
| 8 |
Villarreal
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +6 | 18 |
| 9 |
Vallecano
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 |
Valencia
|
12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |
Valladolid
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 |
Getafe
|
13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |
Girona
|
13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 |
Mallorca
|
12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 |
Almeria
|
12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 16 |
Espanol
|
12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 |
Celta
|
12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 |
Cadiz
|
13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -16 | 11 |
| 19 |
Sevilla
|
12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 |
Elche
|
12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | -19 | 4 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Osasuna
Valladolid
Valladolid
Sociedad
Valladolid
Celta
Espanol
Valladolid
Valladolid
Betis
Ricardo De Burgos · 119 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.