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Primeira Liga
Referee: Manuel Mota
Sp Lisbon
T S U T T
3–0
Full-time
Guimaraes
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
0,8
2,0
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 55%
55%
55%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
73%
36%
Both score Ø 41%
45%
36%
Average goals
3,2
2,1
Scored
1,9
1,2
Conceded
1,3
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

63% Possession 37%
17 Shots 3
6 Shots on target 0
6 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
11 Corners 3
4 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 6. · Guimaraes 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 11 10 1 0 +24 31
2 Porto 12 8 2 2 +19 26
3 Sp Braga 11 8 1 2 +17 25
4 Guimaraes 11 6 2 3 +3 20
5 Casa Pia 11 6 2 3 +3 20
6 Sp Lisbon 11 6 1 4 +7 19
7 Portimonense 12 6 1 5 -1 19
8 Arouca 12 5 4 3 -4 19
9 Boavista 11 5 2 4 -5 17
10 Estoril 11 4 4 3 +2 16
11 Chaves 11 4 3 4 -4 15
12 Rio Ave 11 3 3 5 -4 12
13 Vizela 12 3 3 6 -4 12
14 Famalicao 11 3 1 7 -6 10
15 Santa Clara 11 2 3 6 -4 9
16 Gil Vicente 12 2 3 7 -8 9
17 Maritimo 11 1 2 8 -18 5
18 Pacos Ferreira 12 0 2 10 -17 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Guimaraes
Hidemasa Morita 🟨
15′
17′
🟨 Afonso Freitas
26′
🟨 Afonso Freitas
26′
🟥 Afonso Freitas
M. Edwards 🔁
↦ Flávio Nazinho
33′
33′
🔁 R. Ogawa
↦ Nélson Luz
1–0 M. Edwards
Pedro Porro
34′
2–0 H. Morita
M. Edwards
40′
Half-time 2–0
Rochinha 🔁
↦ H. Morita
46′
50′
🟨 Tiago Silva
52′
🟨 Ibrahima Bamba
3–0 M. Edwards
Gonçalo Inácio
55′
62′
🔁 Jota Silva
↦ M. Johnston
62′
🔁 Dani Silva
↦ Tiago Silva
62′
🔁 André Silva
↦ Anderson Silva
S. Alexandropoulos 🔁
↦ M. Ugarte
64′
J. St. Juste 🔁
↦ S. Coates
64′
Trincão 🔁
↦ Pedro Porro
64′
66′
🟨 André André
80′
🔁 Bruno Gaspar
↦ Zé Carlos
Paulinho ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
90′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
1 Adán G
25 Gonçalo Inácio D
4 S. Coates D
2 Matheus Reis D
24 Pedro Porro M
15 M. Ugarte M
5 H. Morita M
71 Flávio Nazinho M
33 Arthur Gomes F
28 Pote F
20 Paulinho F
Bench (9)
10 M. Edwards
16 Rochinha
6 S. Alexandropoulos
3 J. St. Juste
17 Trincão
12 F. Israel
84 Dário Essugo
63 José Marsà
47 Ricardo Esgaio

Coach: Rúben Amorim

Guimaraes

5-4-1
14 Bruno Varela G
28 Zé Carlos D
13 André Amaro D
22 I. Bamba D
3 M. Villanueva D
72 Afonso de Freitas D
20 Nélson Luz M
10 Tiago Silva M
21 André André M
90 M. Johnston M
33 Anderson Silva F
Bench (9)
25 R. Ogawa
11 Jota Silva
80 Dani Silva
17 André Silva
76 Bruno Gaspar
98 N. Janvier
83 M. Tounkara
63 Celton Biai
7 Rúben Lameiras

Coach: Moreno

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,33
U
5,11
B
9,00
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,71
U2,5
2,12
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Manuel Mota · 73 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.