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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Nott'm Forest

U S S S T

1–1

Full-time

Chelsea

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 33%

19%

47%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

44%

53%

Both score Ø 39%

31%

47%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

2,1

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

28% Possession 72%

12 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 19. · Chelsea 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	14	1	1	+26	43
2	Man City	16	11	3	2	+28	36
3	Newcastle	17	9	7	1	+21	34
4	Man United	16	10	2	4	+4	32
5	Tottenham	17	9	3	5	+8	30
6	Liverpool	16	8	4	4	+14	28
7	Fulham	17	7	4	6	+2	25
8	Brighton	16	7	3	6	+4	24
9	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+2	24
10	Brentford	17	5	8	4	+0	23
11	Crystal Palace	16	6	4	6	-4	22
12	Aston Villa	17	6	3	8	-6	21
13	Leicester	17	5	2	10	-4	17
14	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	Bournemouth	17	4	4	9	-18	16
16	Everton	17	3	6	8	-7	15
17	West Ham	17	4	2	11	-9	14
18	Wolves	17	3	4	10	-16	13
19	Nott'm Forest	16	3	4	9	-22	13
20	Southampton	17	3	3	11	-17	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	1	1	+21	22
2	Arsenal	7	7	0	0	+14	21
3	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+14	20
4	Newcastle	9	5	4	0	+12	19
5	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+8	18
6	Man United	7	5	1	1	+8	16
7	Fulham	9	4	3	2	+2	15
8	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+6	14
9	Brentford	8	3	4	1	+6	13
10	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+3	13
11	Crystal Palace	8	4	1	3	-1	13
12	Brighton	8	3	2	3	+3	11
13	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+1	11
14	Nott'm Forest	8	3	2	3	-1	11
15	Bournemouth	9	3	2	4	-1	11
16	West Ham	9	3	1	5	-3	10
17	Leicester	8	2	2	4	+0	8
18	Everton	8	2	2	4	-1	8
19	Wolves	9	2	2	5	-9	8
20	Southampton	8	1	3	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Man United	9	5	1	3	-4	16
3	Newcastle	8	4	3	1	+9	15
4	Man City	7	4	2	1	+7	14
5	Brighton	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Tottenham	8	3	3	2	+0	12
7	Fulham	8	3	1	4	+0	10
8	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	-4	10
9	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-6	10
10	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Leicester	9	3	0	6	-4	9
12	Liverpool	7	2	2	3	+0	8
13	Aston Villa	9	2	2	5	-9	8
14	Everton	9	1	4	4	-6	7
15	Southampton	9	2	0	7	-11	6
16	Leeds	8	1	2	5	-7	5
17	Wolves	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Bournemouth	8	1	2	5	-17	5
19	West Ham	8	1	1	6	-6	4
20	Nott'm Forest	8	0	2	6	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.