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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Hamburg

U T T T S

3–2

Full-time

Freiburg

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 32%

25%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

63%

Both score Ø 61%

63%

59%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,98 xG 0,41

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 12. · Freiburg 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	27	5	1	+82	+56.7	86
2	Dortmund	33	21	7	5	+34	+21.9	70
3	RB Leipzig	33	20	5	8	+22	+16.3	65
4	Stuttgart	33	18	7	8	+22	+10.3	61
5	Hoffenheim	33	18	7	8	+17	+4.5	61
6	Leverkusen	33	17	7	9	+21	+18.1	58
7	Freiburg	32	12	8	12	-8	+1.4	44
8	Ein Frankfurt	33	11	10	12	-4	-6.2	43
9	Augsburg	33	12	7	14	-12	-13.8	43
10	Mainz	32	9	10	13	-9	-2.3	37
11	M'gladbach	33	8	11	14	-15	-9.4	35
12	Hamburg	32	8	10	14	-15	-19.9	34
13	Union Berlin	32	8	9	15	-20	-10.4	33
14	FC Koln	32	7	11	14	-8	-1.2	32
15	Werder Bremen	33	8	8	17	-21	-11.1	32
16	Wolfsburg	33	6	8	19	-26	-15.7	26
17	St Pauli	33	6	8	19	-29	-24.0	26
18	Heidenheim	32	5	8	19	-31	-15.3	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+45	+33.5	41
2	Dortmund	17	13	2	2	+24	+21.5	41
3	Stuttgart	17	12	3	2	+14	+12.5	39
4	RB Leipzig	17	12	2	3	+20	+14.5	38
5	Hoffenheim	17	10	2	5	+14	+9.1	32
6	Leverkusen	16	9	3	4	+19	+23.1	30
7	Freiburg	16	8	5	3	+8	+10.6	29
8	Augsburg	17	7	5	5	-3	-5.0	26
9	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	3	6	+2	+3.1	24
10	Hamburg	16	5	6	5	+2	-2.7	21
11	M'gladbach	16	5	6	5	-4	-1.6	21
12	FC Koln	16	5	4	7	+2	+5.0	19
13	Union Berlin	16	4	7	5	-4	+4.4	19
14	Werder Bremen	16	5	4	7	-10	+3.3	19
15	Mainz	16	4	5	7	-2	+5.4	17
16	Heidenheim	16	4	5	7	-12	-7.8	17
17	St Pauli	16	4	5	7	-12	-7.9	17
18	Wolfsburg	17	2	4	11	-11	+1.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	14	3	0	+37	+23.2	45
2	Dortmund	16	8	5	3	+10	+0.4	29
3	Hoffenheim	16	8	5	3	+3	-4.6	29
4	Leverkusen	17	8	4	5	+2	-5.1	28
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	3	5	+2	+1.8	27
6	Stuttgart	16	6	4	6	+8	-2.1	22
7	Mainz	16	5	5	6	-7	-7.7	20
8	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	7	6	-6	-9.3	19
9	Augsburg	16	5	2	9	-9	-8.7	17
10	Wolfsburg	16	4	4	8	-15	-16.9	16
11	Freiburg	16	4	3	9	-16	-9.2	15
12	M'gladbach	17	3	5	9	-11	-7.7	14
13	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-16	-14.9	14
14	FC Koln	16	2	7	7	-10	-6.2	13
15	Werder Bremen	17	3	4	10	-11	-14.4	13
16	Hamburg	16	3	4	9	-17	-17.1	13
17	St Pauli	17	2	3	12	-17	-16.1	9
18	Heidenheim	16	1	3	12	-19	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.