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Serie A

Referee: M Irrati

Inter

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Spal

U T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

1,3

Scored

2,5

0,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 50%

85%

15%

Points per game

2,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

77%

31%

Both score Ø 50%

62%

38%

Average goals

3,2

2,1

Scored

2,2

0,6

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

54% Possession 46%

16 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 0

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 2. · Spal 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	11	3	0	+13	36
2	Inter	13	11	1	1	+17	34
3	Lazio	13	8	3	2	+16	27
4	Atalanta	14	7	4	3	+13	25
5	Cagliari	13	7	4	2	+11	25
6	Roma	13	7	4	2	+9	25
7	Napoli	13	5	5	3	+6	20
8	Parma	13	5	3	5	+3	18
9	Verona	13	5	3	5	+0	18
10	Torino	14	5	2	7	-4	17
11	Fiorentina	14	4	4	6	-3	16
12	Sassuolo	13	4	2	7	-1	14
13	Milan	13	4	2	7	-5	14
14	Lecce	14	3	5	6	-9	14
15	Udinese	13	4	2	7	-11	14
16	Bologna	13	3	4	6	-4	13
17	Sampdoria	13	3	3	7	-11	12
18	Genoa	14	2	4	8	-13	10
19	Spal	13	2	3	8	-11	9
20	Brescia	13	2	1	10	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	7	6	1	0	+7	19
2	Lazio	6	4	2	0	+12	14
3	Roma	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	+6	13
5	Inter	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Parma	7	4	0	3	+4	12
7	Napoli	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Verona	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-4	10
10	Sassuolo	7	3	0	4	+2	9
11	Sampdoria	7	2	3	2	-3	9
12	Bologna	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Fiorentina	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Spal	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Milan	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Torino	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Atalanta	6	2	1	3	+3	7
18	Genoa	7	2	1	4	-2	7
19	Lecce	6	0	3	3	-5	3
20	Brescia	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	7	7	0	0	+11	21
2	Atalanta	8	5	3	0	+10	18
3	Juventus	7	5	2	0	+6	17
4	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Cagliari	6	3	3	0	+5	12
6	Roma	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Lecce	8	3	2	3	-4	11
8	Napoli	7	2	3	2	+2	9
9	Torino	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	Fiorentina	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Verona	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Parma	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Milan	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Brescia	7	2	0	5	-6	6
15	Sassuolo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Sampdoria	6	1	0	5	-8	3
19	Genoa	7	0	3	4	-11	3
20	Spal	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.