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Eredivisie
Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof
AZ Alkmaar
T S S S S
1–0
Full-time
VVV Venlo
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar VVV Venlo
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
83%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,5
4,5
Scored
2,7
0,8
Conceded
0,8
3,7
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-2,8
This season — Eredivisie · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 50%
71%
29%
Points per game
2,3
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
64%
86%
Both score Ø 47%
29%
64%
Average goals
3,0
3,7
Scored
2,4
1,0
Conceded
0,6
2,7
Goal diff per game
+1,9
-1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

75% Possession 25%
25 Shots 4
8 Shots on target 1
9 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
10 Corners 0
2 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 2. · VVV Venlo 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 15 13 2 0 +40 41
2 AZ Alkmaar 14 10 2 2 +26 32
3 PSV Eindhoven 14 8 3 3 +13 27
4 Willem II 15 8 2 5 +2 26
5 Heracles 15 7 3 5 +7 24
6 Heerenveen 15 6 6 3 +6 24
7 Utrecht 15 7 2 6 +6 23
8 Vitesse 15 7 2 6 +2 23
9 Groningen 15 6 3 6 +2 21
10 Feyenoord 14 5 6 3 +1 21
11 Sparta Rotterdam 15 5 4 6 -4 19
12 Twente 15 5 3 7 -5 18
13 For Sittard 15 4 3 8 -15 15
14 FC Emmen 14 4 2 8 -12 14
15 Zwolle 14 4 1 9 -11 13
16 VVV Venlo 14 4 0 10 -24 12
17 Den Haag 15 3 2 10 -13 11
18 Waalwijk 15 2 2 11 -21 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar VVV Venlo
1–0 Y. Sugawara
J. Svensson
39′
Half-time 1–0
Jonas Svensson 🟨
59′
Teun Koopmeiners 🟨
71′
71′
🔁 J. Sinclair
↦ P. van Ooijen
F. Druijf 🔁
↦ M. Boadu
75′
78′
🔁 J. Yeboah
↦ J. Opoku
Z. Aboukhlal 🔁
↦ Y. Sugawara
87′
87′
🔁 R. Neudecker
↦ R. Janssen
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 M. Bizot G
30 S. Wuytens D
2 J. Svensson D
15 O. Wijndal D
26 Y. Sugawara F
20 J. Clasie D
10 D. de Wit M
8 T. Koopmeiners M
11 O. Idrissi F
9 M. Boadu F
7 C. Stengs M
Bench (7)
14 F. Druijf
17 Z. Aboukhlal
24 T. Reijnders
5 T. Ouwejan
16 J. Schendelaar
29 J. Kramer
22 R. de Boer

Coach: A. Slot

VVV Venlo

4-3-3
1 T. Kirschbaum G
14 C. Kum D
4 R. Janssen D
13 N. Röseler D
2 T. Pachonik D
6 D. Post M
10 J. Opoku F
8 P. van Ooijen M
21 E. Linthorst M
9 E. Soriano F
7 H. Wright F
Bench (11)
15 J. Sinclair
19 J. Yeboah
11 R. Neudecker
17 T. Dekker
20 D. van Bruggen
16 D. van Crooij
26 S. van Dijck
5 S. Schäfer
18 S. Scheimann
24 S. Janssen
30 J. Craenmehr

Coach: J. Driessen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,15
U
7,86
B
16,57
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,37
U2,5 ✓
3,01
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Martin Van den Kerkhof · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.