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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Tondela

U S T S T

0–1

Full-time

Belenenses

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

3,2

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/11 matches

Win Ø 30%

33%

27%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

33%

36%

Both score Ø 30%

33%

27%

Average goals

1,8

2,4

Scored

0,9

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 8. · Belenenses 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	0	1	+26	36
2	Porto	12	10	1	1	+21	31
3	Famalicao	12	7	3	2	+6	24
4	Sp Lisbon	11	6	2	3	+6	20
5	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+3	18
6	Boavista	13	4	6	3	+2	18
7	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	+5	16
8	Tondela	12	4	4	4	+0	16
9	Moreirense	13	3	6	4	-1	15
10	Sp Braga	12	4	3	5	-2	15
11	Gil Vicente	12	3	5	4	-3	14
12	Santa Clara	13	3	5	5	-4	14
13	Setubal	11	2	6	3	-4	12
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	6	3	-4	12
15	Portimonense	13	2	6	5	-7	12
16	Maritimo	13	2	6	5	-9	12
17	Belenenses	11	3	2	6	-10	11
18	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	2	7	-10	8
19	Aves	12	1	0	11	-15	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+17	21
2	Porto	6	6	0	0	+17	18
3	Famalicao	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+8	11
5	Moreirense	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+3	11
7	Gil Vicente	7	2	5	0	+3	11
8	Setubal	6	2	4	0	+2	10
9	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	4	0	+2	10
10	Sp Lisbon	5	3	0	2	+3	9
11	Boavista	6	2	3	1	+2	9
12	Santa Clara	8	2	3	3	-1	9
13	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+0	8
14	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Belenenses	5	2	0	3	-3	6
17	Portimonense	6	1	2	3	-3	5
18	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Aves	5	1	0	4	-2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Porto	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	Tondela	7	3	3	1	+3	12
4	Sp Lisbon	6	3	2	1	+3	11
5	Famalicao	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Boavista	7	2	3	2	+0	9
7	Rio Ave	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Sp Braga	7	2	1	4	-2	7
9	Portimonense	7	1	4	2	-4	7
10	Maritimo	7	1	3	3	-7	6
11	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Belenenses	6	1	2	3	-7	5
14	Moreirense	7	0	4	3	-5	4
15	Gil Vicente	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Vitoria Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-9	1
19	Aves	7	0	0	7	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.