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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Bournemouth

T U T U S

1–4

Full-time

Man City

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 45%

22%

67%

Points per game

0,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

43%

67%

Both score Ø 47%

35%

58%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

0,9

2,5

Conceded

1,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

1,32 xG 2,52

34% Possession 66%

13 Shots 20

2 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 19. · Man City 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	24	18	3	3	+29	+4.9	57
2	Man City	24	16	4	4	+36	+8.1	52
3	Man United	24	15	4	5	+13	+2.9	49
4	Tottenham	24	13	3	8	+9	-0.7	42
5	Newcastle	23	10	11	2	+20	+0.9	41
6	Fulham	25	11	6	8	+5	-1.9	39
7	Brighton	22	10	5	7	+10	+5.8	35
8	Liverpool	22	10	5	7	+10	+1.5	35
9	Brentford	23	8	11	4	+7	+1.7	35
10	Chelsea	23	8	7	8	+0	+1.8	31
11	Aston Villa	24	9	4	11	-8	-5.7	31
12	Crystal Palace	23	6	8	9	-10	-4.4	26
13	Nott'm Forest	24	6	7	11	-24	-4.7	25
14	Leicester	24	7	3	14	-6	-3.5	24
15	Wolves	24	6	6	12	-15	-1.7	24
16	West Ham	24	6	5	13	-6	+3.1	23
17	Leeds	24	5	7	12	-10	-0.5	22
18	Everton	24	5	6	13	-15	-2.2	21
19	Bournemouth	23	5	6	12	-23	-1.8	21
20	Southampton	24	5	3	16	-22	-3.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+28	+6.6	31
2	Man United	12	9	2	1	+16	+4.9	29
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+13	+2.3	26
4	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+16	+1.7	24
5	Tottenham	12	8	0	4	+9	+1.2	24
6	Brentford	12	6	5	1	+13	+1.3	23
7	Newcastle	12	6	5	1	+11	+0.2	23
8	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+4	+0.6	22
9	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+2	-2.0	19
10	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+5	+1.7	18
11	Brighton	11	5	2	4	+6	+3.2	17
12	West Ham	12	5	2	5	+3	+4.2	17
13	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	+0	-3.6	17
14	Leeds	12	4	4	4	+0	+1.3	16
15	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-5	-3.9	16
16	Everton	13	4	2	7	-5	+1.5	14
17	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-6	+0.3	14
18	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-1	-0.3	13
19	Leicester	12	3	3	6	+1	-1.5	12
20	Southampton	11	1	3	7	-9	-0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	10	1	2	+16	+2.6	31
2	Man City	12	6	3	3	+8	+1.5	21
3	Man United	12	6	2	4	-3	-2.0	20
4	Newcastle	11	4	6	1	+9	+0.7	18
5	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.6	18
6	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+0	-2.0	18
7	Fulham	12	5	2	5	+1	-2.6	17
8	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-8	-2.1	14
9	Chelsea	12	3	4	5	-5	+0.1	13
10	Brentford	11	2	6	3	-6	+0.4	12
11	Leicester	12	4	0	8	-7	-2.0	12
12	Southampton	13	4	0	9	-13	-3.0	12
13	Liverpool	11	3	2	6	-6	-0.2	11
14	Crystal Palace	11	2	4	5	-5	-0.5	10
15	Wolves	12	2	4	6	-9	-2.0	10
16	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-22	-1.5	8
17	Everton	11	1	4	6	-10	-3.7	7
18	West Ham	12	1	3	8	-9	-1.1	6
19	Leeds	12	1	3	8	-10	-1.8	6
20	Nott'm Forest	12	1	3	8	-26	-2.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.