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Bundesliga

Referee: R Schröder

RB Leipzig

T T S S S

3–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 57%

64%

50%

Points per game

2,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

79%

Both score Ø 75%

57%

93%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

2,4

2,0

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,17 xG 0,96

57% Possession 43%

23 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Hoffenheim 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	11	3	0	+27	+12.9	36
2	Bayern Munich	13	10	2	1	+30	+28.7	32
3	Stuttgart	14	10	1	3	+18	+21.2	31
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+19	+11.6	29
5	Dortmund	15	7	5	3	+5	+1.1	26
6	Hoffenheim	14	7	2	5	+4	-1.6	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	5	6	3	+8	-0.7	21
8	Freiburg	14	6	3	5	-6	-1.7	21
9	Wolfsburg	15	6	1	8	-6	-2.5	19
10	Augsburg	15	4	6	5	-4	-1.1	18
11	M'gladbach	15	4	5	6	-3	-3.4	17
12	Heidenheim	15	5	2	8	-8	-16.4	17
13	Bochum	15	3	7	5	-11	-4.6	16
14	Werder Bremen	15	4	3	8	-7	-7.1	15
15	FC Koln	14	2	4	8	-14	-15.3	10
16	Union Berlin	14	3	1	10	-16	-5.3	10
17	Mainz	15	1	6	8	-15	-1.2	9
18	Darmstadt	15	2	3	10	-21	-14.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	8	6	1	1	+16	+15.9	19
2	Leverkusen	7	6	1	0	+16	+11.6	19
3	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.3	17
4	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+22	+15.9	16
5	Dortmund	8	5	1	2	+2	+4.1	16
6	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.3	13
7	Augsburg	8	3	4	1	+2	+0.5	13
8	Heidenheim	7	4	1	2	+2	-4.4	13
9	Werder Bremen	8	4	1	3	+1	-0.6	13
10	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	3	1	+6	+0.8	12
11	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.7	11
12	M'gladbach	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.3	11
13	Bochum	7	2	4	1	+3	+5.8	10
14	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-2	-1.2	7
15	Union Berlin	7	2	1	4	-6	-2.0	7
16	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-4	-6.2	5
17	Darmstadt	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.4	5
18	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-7	+1.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	7	5	2	0	+11	+1.3	17
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	1	1	+8	+12.7	16
3	Hoffenheim	7	5	1	1	+6	-0.5	16
4	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	+3	+3.4	12
5	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	+2	+5.3	12
6	Dortmund	7	2	4	1	+3	-3.1	10
7	Freiburg	8	3	1	4	-8	-5.5	10
8	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	3	2	+2	-1.5	9
9	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-4	-3.6	6
10	Wolfsburg	8	2	0	6	-10	-2.8	6
11	Bochum	8	1	3	4	-14	-10.4	6
12	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-6	-1.6	5
13	Mainz	8	0	5	3	-8	-3.1	5
14	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-10	-9.1	5
15	Heidenheim	8	1	1	6	-10	-12.0	4
16	Darmstadt	7	1	1	5	-15	-12.2	4
17	Union Berlin	7	1	0	6	-10	-3.3	3
18	Werder Bremen	7	0	2	5	-8	-6.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.