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Eredivisie

Referee: J van der Laan

Almere City

U U S S U

0–5

Full-time

Heracles

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almere City Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

4,0

Scored

2,3

0,5

Conceded

0,8

3,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-3,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

58%

92%

Both score Ø 67%

58%

75%

Average goals

2,8

3,9

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,06 xG 3,21

63% Possession 37%

17 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

7 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almere City 11. · Heracles 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	13	0	0	+43	+30.1	39
2	Feyenoord	13	10	2	1	+29	+27.6	32
3	Twente	13	8	3	2	+11	+7.8	27
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	8	2	1	+20	+9.2	26
5	Go Ahead Eagles	12	6	3	3	+7	-6.8	21
6	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	3	4	+1	-2.6	18
7	Heerenveen	13	5	1	7	-6	-1.8	16
8	Ajax	12	4	3	5	+2	-0.4	15
9	Excelsior	13	3	6	4	-3	-4.2	15
10	Zwolle	13	4	2	7	-8	-4.6	14
11	Almere City	12	3	4	5	-10	-3.5	13
12	For Sittard	13	3	4	6	-11	-3.4	13
13	Waalwijk	12	4	0	8	-11	-4.7	12
14	Heracles	12	3	3	6	-17	-10.4	12
15	Nijmegen	11	2	5	4	-2	-8.1	11
16	Utrecht	12	2	3	7	-12	-10.1	9
17	Volendam	12	2	2	8	-13	-4.1	8
18	Vitesse	13	2	2	9	-20	-9.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+20	+16.2	21
2	Feyenoord	6	5	1	0	+17	+11.9	16
3	Go Ahead Eagles	6	5	1	0	+15	+4.3	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	+4	+2.8	16
5	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
6	Ajax	6	4	0	2	+8	+4.1	12
7	For Sittard	6	3	2	1	+3	+3.6	11
8	Heerenveen	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.7	10
9	Heracles	6	3	1	2	-4	-3.6	10
10	Nijmegen	6	2	2	2	+3	+1.5	8
11	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	2	2	-2	-1.7	8
12	Excelsior	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.3	7
13	Volendam	6	2	1	3	-3	+2.2	7
14	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-4	+1.2	7
15	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-6	-4.3	6
16	Utrecht	6	1	2	3	-7	-5.7	5
17	Almere City	6	1	2	3	-7	-1.7	5
18	Vitesse	6	0	2	4	-8	-1.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+23	+13.9	18
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+12	+15.6	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+7	+1.1	13
4	Twente	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.0	11
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.0	10
6	Excelsior	6	2	2	2	+0	-1.9	8
7	Almere City	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.7	8
8	Zwolle	6	2	1	3	-4	-5.8	7
9	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-5	-0.4	6
10	Heerenveen	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.6	6
11	Vitesse	7	2	0	5	-12	-8.0	6
12	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
13	Utrecht	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.4	4
14	Nijmegen	5	0	3	2	-5	-9.5	3
15	Ajax	6	0	3	3	-6	-4.4	3
16	Heracles	6	0	2	4	-13	-6.8	2
17	For Sittard	7	0	2	5	-14	-7.0	2
18	Volendam	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.