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Champions League
Referee: Jesús Gil
Man City
S S S S S
3–0
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
100%
67%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
4,3
3,8
Scored
4,0
2,3
Conceded
0,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+3,7
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 82%
63%
100%
Points per game
2,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
63%
38%
Both score Ø 26%
38%
13%
Average goals
3,1
2,9
Scored
2,8
2,6
Conceded
0,4
0,3
Goal diff per game
+2,4
+2,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,92 xG 0,85
44% Possession 56%
17 Shots 12
9 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 5
0 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Man City Bayern Munich
1–0 Rodri ⚽
Bernardo Silva
27′
Half-time 1–0
Bernardo Silva 🟨
48′
49′
🟨 Alphonso Davies
J. Álvarez 🔁
↦ K. De Bruyne
68′
69′
🔁 S. Mané
↦ J. Musiala
2–0 Bernardo Silva ⚽
E. Haaland
70′
3–0 E. Haaland ⚽
J. Stones
76′
80′
🔁 T. Müller
↦ S. Gnabry
80′
🔁 João Cancelo
↦ A. Davies
88′
🟨 Benjamin Pavard
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Man City

3-2-4-1
31 Ederson G
25 M. Akanji D
3 Rúben Dias D
6 N. Aké D
5 J. Stones M
16 Rodri M
20 Bernardo Silva F
17 K. De Bruyne M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
10 J. Grealish F
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (11)
19 J. Álvarez
21 Sergio Gómez
26 R. Mahrez
82 R. Lewis
32 M. Perrone
18 S. Ortega
33 S. Carson
4 K. Phillips
2 K. Walker
80 C. Palmer
14 Aymeric Laporte

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
27 Y. Sommer G
5 B. Pavard D
2 D. Upamecano D
4 M. de Ligt D
19 A. Davies D
6 J. Kimmich M
8 L. Goretzka M
11 K. Coman M
42 J. Musiala M
10 L. Sané M
7 S. Gnabry F
Bench (11)
17 S. Mané
25 T. Müller
22 João Cancelo
26 S. Ulreich
23 D. Blind
38 R. Gravenberch
35 J. Schenk
40 N. Mazraoui
44 J. Stanišić
20 B. Sarr
39 M. Tel

Coach: T. Tuchel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jesús Gil · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.