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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Bayern Munich
S T S T U
1–1
Full-time
Man City
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
33%
100%
Points per game
1,2
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
5,0
Scored
1,3
4,5
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+4,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 78%
89%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
44%
67%
Both score Ø 22%
11%
33%
Average goals
2,9
3,1
Scored
2,3
2,8
Conceded
0,6
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+2,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,19 xG 1,35
58% Possession 42%
19 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 2
2 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 11
6 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. Apr -23 Man City – Bayern Munich 3–0

Match report

Bayern Munich Man City
Sven Ulreich 🟨
-5′
João Cancelo 🟨
11′
Dayot Upamecano 🟨
35′
44′
🟨 Ederson
Half-time 0–0
Joshua Kimmich 🟨
47′
47′
🟨 İlkay Gündoğan
54′
🟨 Nathan Aké
57′
⚽ E. Haaland 0–1
K. De Bruyne
Benjamin Pavard 🟨
60′
A. Davies 🔁
↦ João Cancelo
63′
S. Mané 🔁
↦ L. Sané
64′
66′
🔁 Aymeric Laporte
↦ N. Aké
M. Tel 🔁
↦ E. Choupo-Moting
71′
T. Müller 🔁
↦ J. Musiala
72′
J. Stanišić 🔁
↦ B. Pavard
77′
Sadio Mané ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
81′
1–1 J. Kimmich ⚽
83′
84′
🔁 J. Álvarez
↦ E. Haaland
86′
🟨 Aymeric Laporte
Josip Stanišić 🟨
88′
88′
🔁 K. Walker
↦ K. De Bruyne
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
27 Y. Sommer G
5 B. Pavard D
2 D. Upamecano D
4 M. de Ligt D
22 João Cancelo D
6 J. Kimmich M
8 L. Goretzka M
11 K. Coman M
42 J. Musiala M
10 L. Sané M
13 E. Choupo-Moting F
Bench (12)
19 A. Davies
17 S. Mané
39 M. Tel
25 T. Müller
44 J. Stanišić
20 B. Sarr
26 S. Ulreich
7 S. Gnabry
46 A. Ibrahimović
40 N. Mazraoui
38 R. Gravenberch
23 D. Blind

Coach: T. Tuchel

Man City

3-2-4-1
31 Ederson G
25 M. Akanji D
3 Rúben Dias D
6 N. Aké D
5 J. Stones M
16 Rodri M
20 Bernardo Silva F
17 K. De Bruyne M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
10 J. Grealish F
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (12)
14 Aymeric Laporte
19 J. Álvarez
2 K. Walker
33 S. Carson
47 P. Foden
82 R. Lewis
32 M. Perrone
80 C. Palmer
21 Sergio Gómez
18 S. Ortega
26 R. Mahrez
4 K. Phillips

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.